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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. The U.S. CFTC is investigating Donald Trump staff members on suspicion of using insider information from a teleprompter to trade on predicted events; 2. Crypto.com has secured a $400 million invest
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Nine U.S. House representatives have introduced a bill requiring online gambling and prediction markets to implement facial age verification
Svmuu News: U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer and eight co-sponsors have introduced a bipartisan bill requiring online sports betting platforms and prediction markets to verify users’ ages before th
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predict.fun Launches Maker Rebates for Up/Down Markets: Rebate Rates Are Higher Than Polymarket’s, and Rebates Are Credited in Real Time
Svmuu News: The prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that a Maker order rebate mechanism is now available for all Up/Down markets. Users who execute trades via limit orders will receiv
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The U.S. CFTC is investigating staff members suspected of using inside information from a speech at Donald Trump to engage in trading based on predicted events
Svmuu News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. An employee allegedly responsibl
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Bloomberg: Jump Trading's Market Forecasting Team Has Doubled in Size and Plans to Continue Hiring
Svmuu News: High-frequency trading giant Jump Trading Group is ramping up its presence in the prediction markets sector. As major events such as the World Cup have driven prediction market trading vol
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Prediction markets reached a nominal trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, setting a new record high
According to Svmuu, CoinGecko’s latest Crypto Industry Report shows that the market’s nominal trading volume is projected to reach $113.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, setting a new single-qu
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Prediction market platform Pascal raises $9 million in Series A funding, led by USV
Svmuu News: Prediction market platform Pascal announced the completion of a $9 million Series A funding round. The company plans to build a next-generation prediction market platform for professional
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ForeGate Launches EWC Esports Club World Cup Special Section
Svmuu News: ForeGate, the next-generation event prediction trading platform globally endorsed by legendary soccer star Michael Owen, has announced the official launch of its EWC (Esports World Cup) th
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predict.fun: The probability that “Messi will win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” has risen sharply to 65%, up 15% in the last 24 hours
According to PPP prediction market data, the probability of “Messi winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” on predict.fun has risen sharply to 65%, up 15% over the past 24 hours; Mbappé has dropped to
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In this highly anticipated showdown, predict.fun currently puts the probability of “BLG defeating T1 in the League of Legends EWC” at 51%.
According to PPP’s prediction market tool, the probability of BLG winning in the “League of Legends EWC Group Stage: BLG vs. T1” prediction event on predict.fun is currently reported at 51%. The match
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Polymarket Launches New Market: “When Will the U.S. and Iran Agree to a Two-Week Ceasefire?”
According to monitoring data from the PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket has launched a market titled “When will the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire?” The current probability for July 18
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A "smart money" investor has bet over $90,000 that Argentina will not win the 2026 World Cup
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “Will Argentina Win the 2026 World Cup?”, smart money with a win probability exceeding 72% (0x701187150980c2421bc3c87a
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Polymarket’s probability estimates for “Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Parden, and Jacob Chimmelman winning the Fields Medal” have all risen to over 98%.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probabilities of the following four events on Polymarket—“Deng Yu will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “Wang Hong will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “ Jo
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Bitcoin After breaking through the $64,000 resistance level, Myriad traders are betting it will first drop to $55,000
Svmuu News Bitcoin broke through the $64,000 resistance level on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of $65,511 before closing at $64,858, down 0.18% for the day.Charts show that the downtrend channel
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$2.5 Million Profit in One Week; $310,000 Spent on Addresses; Argentina Has Not Won in Regular Season Play
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup England vs. Argentina prediction event, an address that made a profit of $2.5 million over 7 days purchased $310,000 on the
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Kalshi's Self-Certified CFTC-Regulated Contract for Flight Cancellation Events
Svmuu News: Kalshi has self-certified a CFTC-regulated flight cancellation contract that allows investors to trade on whether the number of flight cancellations at a specific airport will exceed a set
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $150,000 bet on England not winning in regulation time in the World Cup semifinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: England vs. Argentina,” the address 0xe549581668a5751c1972d3ad2d1991d900bd2d54 placed a b
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China vs. South Korea Showdown: predict.fun Currently Puts the Probability of “League of Legends EWC AL Defeating DK” at 49%
According to PPP’s prediction market tool, the probability of AL winning in the “League of Legends EWC Group Stage: AL vs. DK” prediction event on predict.fun is currently reported at 49%. This match
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A trader turned a $10.8 million loss into a profit of over $8 million in two weeks.
Svmuu News: Lookonchain posted on X stating that a trader turned a $10.8 million loss into a profit of over $8 million in two weeks. Yesterday, the trader bet $11.3 million on the Spain vs. France mat
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Some idiot bet $350,000 on Argentina advancing to the World Cup final
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: England vs. Argentina,” the account 123abc (address: 0xc58df0b98437f613e20916c242403e0a6c
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The defending champions take the stage; predict.fun currently puts the probability of “GENG defeating KC in the League of Legends EWC” at 88%.
According to PPP’s prediction market tool, the probability of GENG winning in the “League of Legends EWC: GENG vs. KC” prediction event on predict.fun is currently reported at 88%. The EWC League of L
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BitMart Releases Its First-Half 2026 Report, Continuing to Expand Its Global Digital Asset Services
Svmuu News: According to official reports, BitMart has released its report for the first half of 2026. The report shows that, despite significant pressure in the crypto market, BitMart has continued t
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Archrivals Reunite; predict.fun Currently Puts the Probability of “England Beating Argentina” at 35%
According to PPP prediction market data, in the “World Cup Semifinal: England vs. Argentina” prediction event, England’s probability of winning is currently reported at 35%; the probability of a draw
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predict.fun: The probability that “Messi will win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” has risen to 59%, up 25% in 24 hours
According to PPP prediction market data, the probability of “Messi winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot” on predict.fun has risen to 59%, overtaking Mbappé to take first place—a 25% increase over th
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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned of manipulation risks in "event market" prediction contracts.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned of manipulation risks in "event market" prediction contracts.
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Prediction market platform Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform
Kalshi filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday to seek approval for offering leverage on event contracts. This move aims to attract greater institutional participation, a
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Bernstein projects annual prediction market volumes to hit $10 trillion by 2035, driven by financial assets overtaking sports
Bernstein projects annual prediction market volumes to hit $10 trillion by 2035, driven by financial assets overtaking sports
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Polymarket starts European lobbying blitz to win over financial watchdogs
The US prediction markets platform is seeking to be regulated as a financial services firm rather than under a patchwork of gambling legislation.
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Prediction market protocol Trueo plans to migrate from Base to Ethereum mainnet
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin praised Trueo as an emerging L1 prediction-market competitor focused on decentralization, ethical design, and more meaningful applications. Trueo cited Ethereum’s n
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Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev believes crypto event contracts will surpass sports betting to become the dominant category in its prediction markets within a few years
Tenev noted that crypto-linked contracts are already taking a disproportionate share of Robinhood's prediction markets business. The company's event-contract revenue surged over tenfold year-over-year
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Vitalik Buterin expresses delight at a new prediction market contender on Ethereum L1, praising its commitment to decentralization and ethical, non-corporate principles
Vitalik Buterin expresses delight at a new prediction market contender on Ethereum L1, praising its commitment to decentralization and ethical, non-corporate principles
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Bitcoin's $80k rally faces inflation expectations test this week, with price model predicting $95k
CryptoSlate analysis indicates that Bitcoin's rebound above $80,000 could be tested by two key economic reports this week. The University of Michigan's final September consumer survey, due September 2
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WuBlockchain forwarded news that Kalshi's cryptocurrency trading volume is facing "wash trading" allegations, as its ETH-PERP 24-hour trading volume reached $539 million, significantly exceeding its open interest of $3.1 million.
Stealth Neolab co-founder Beni questioned Kalshi's cryptocurrency trading volume, pointing out that its ETH-PERP 24-hour trading volume was approximately $539 million, while open interest was only $3.
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Prediction Markets Kalshi and Polymarket Increasingly Upstage Election Polls in Forecasting Outcomes
Voters, donors, and media are increasingly using the betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to forecast election outcomes. Critics, however, warn of new risks to democracy posed by this trend.
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CryptoSlate analysis: Real-time election odds on prediction markets can mislead crypto traders, with DoubleZero's Edge service potentially exacerbating the issue for retail users
CryptoSlate's analysis highlights that while DoubleZero's Edge service, launched on September 9, integrates Kalshi's election and politics market data to offer faster, more dependable information for
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The Wall Street Journal: Polymarket's CEO reportedly instructed employees to continue expanding the business, stating that the company would pay a fine if regulators discovered a failed $10 million credit card fraud attempt.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in February, fraudsters linked stolen debit cards to Polymarket US accounts, attempting to transfer at least $10 million through betting and withdrawals. At one p
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Coinbase reports decline in prediction market performance
Coinbase reports decline in prediction market performance
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South Korean police charge 26 Polymarket users for illegal gambling
The charges come after South Korea's media regulator blocked local access to the Polymarket platform last month, ruling that it offers illegal gambling services.
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Underdog sues Connecticut to stop sports prediction market crackdown
The lawsuit follows cease-and-desist orders the state issued to prediction market platforms, including Underdog, Polymarket, and Coinbase.
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WhaleInsider: Prediction market platform Kalshi broke its all-time weekly volume record and captured its largest-ever share of the industry last week
WhaleInsider: Prediction market platform Kalshi broke its all-time weekly volume record and captured its largest-ever share of the industry last week
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Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $76,862 on Tuesday, as the odds of the Crypto Transparency Act passing this year on Polymarket halved.
Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $76,862 on Tuesday, giving back gains from late Monday after the odds of the "Crypto Transparency Act" passing this year on Polymarket halved.
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Tema Rolls 'DICE' On SpaceX, Prediction Markets
Tema Rolls 'DICE' On SpaceX, Prediction Markets
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Prediction market Kalshi now puts Democrats at 51% vs. Republicans at 49% in the race for Senate control, as the battle remains a true toss-up heading into November.
Prediction market Kalshi now puts Democrats at 51% vs. Republicans at 49% in the race for Senate control, as the battle remains a true toss-up heading into November.
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Prediction market traders expect U.S. gas prices to hit new highs for the year, with a 71% chance of surpassing $4.60/gallon
Traders on Kalshi also place 57% odds that prices will top $4.80 a gallon, and just over a 40% chance that they cross $5.00. This comes as U.S. oil prices are again above $100 per barrel, driven by es
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Prediction Market Kalshi Plans to Offer U.S. Single-Stock Perpetual Futures and Agriculture Commodities Trading
Kalshi, a prediction market, plans to allow customers to trade single-stock perpetual futures contracts in the U.S., including those linked to major U.S. stocks like Tesla and Nvidia. The company is a
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Wall Street strategist Tom Lee predicts Ethereum will reach $6,000 before December, but Yahoo Finance analysis suggests his prediction's conditions are difficult to achieve.
Tom Lee believes Ethereum reaching $6,000 requires two conditions: Bitcoin's price rising to $150,000 and the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio increasing from 0.03 to 0.04. He points out that the passage of
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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong retweeted that the "Parlay Bets" feature on Coinbase Predict is now live for NFL Week 1.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong retweeted that the "Parlay Bets" feature on Coinbase Predict is now live for NFL Week 1.
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Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, making it harder for traders to profit, experts say
Experts note that the institutionalization of prediction markets is eroding the edge of skilled traders. According to an academic paper analyzing $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades, roughly 27% of do
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Delphy (DPY) Token Analysis: Prediction Market Project Status and Risk Assessment
Delphy (DPY) is a decentralized prediction market project based on Ethereum, created by the Bo Wang team in 2017. Its token, DPY, once reached an all-time high of $4.78, but its current price is extremely low, with recent 24-hour trading volume near zero, and a market capitalization displayed as $0, indicating extremely low market activity. Multiple data sources show discrepancies regarding its circulating supply and current price, but the general market sentiment is pessimistic. Given its current market performance and lack of liquidity, DPY is widely considered a high-risk asset with no active investment value.
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US SEC Delays Prediction Market ETF, CFTC Partners with NHL: What's the Compliance Path for New Sectors?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently postponed the approval of several prediction market ETFs multiple times, raising widespread market concerns about the compliance path for these innovative financial products. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has actively signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the National Hockey League (NHL) to enhance the integrity and transparency of event contract markets related to sports. Although prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC at the federal level, conflicts with state laws, jurisdictional disputes between regulatory agencies, and the lack of a unified digital asset regulatory framework continue to pose challenges for the compliance journey of this emerging sector. Its future development will require ongoing exploration and coordination among all parties.
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Polymarket Prediction Market Plagued by Insider Trading: Regulatory Challenges Highlighted by Maduro Ousting Bets
Crypto prediction market Polymarket has recently drawn significant attention due to multiple insider trading allegations. In one instance, a U.S. Army sergeant allegedly used classified military operation information to accurately bet on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, profiting over $400,000. This has led to criminal and civil lawsuits from the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC. Additionally, the platform has been involved in several other cases of trading based on internal information, highlighting the regulatory gaps and integrity challenges faced by prediction markets in their rapid development.
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Polymarket vs. Kalshi Valuation Showdown: An In-depth Analysis of Prediction Market Platform Investment Value
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi are competing in the rapidly evolving event contracts sector. Polymarket is seeking a $21 billion valuation, while Kalshi is targeting $40 billion. This article will provide a comprehensive comparison of their valuations, regulatory compliance, market share, trading volume, revenue models, and potential risks, offering readers a complete perspective to explore which holds greater investment potential in the current market environment.
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ECN Coin Analysis: Current Status and Market Liquidity of Ecosystem Coin Network
ECN typically refers to Ecosystem Coin Network, an ERC-20 token based on Ethereum, designed to build decentralized prediction markets. However, as of September 17, 2026, the token's market performance is extremely sluggish, with public data showing its circulating supply and 24-hour trading volume are both close to zero, resulting in an actual market capitalization of zero. Although it has had higher prices historically, the current market lacks active trading, and investors should be wary of its extremely low liquidity risk.
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GUA Token: A Review of Price Volatility, Security Incidents, and Short Squeezes in an AI Prediction Market Project
GUA is the native token of SUPERFORTUNE, an AI-powered InfoFi platform that combines blockchain analytics with Eastern metaphysics for market predictions. In May 2026, the GUA token experienced a significant price surge, reaching an all-time high of $1.68, partly due to a short squeeze. However, the project subsequently suffered a major security incident (the airdrop contract was stolen), leading to a sharp price correction. It has since fallen close to its initial offering price, with low market liquidity.
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Reviewing the World Cup's Impact on Crypto: Bitcoin's Historical Performance and 2026 prediction market Highlights
The impact of the World Cup on the cryptocurrency market has always been a focal point of industry attention. Historical data shows that during the past three World Cups, Bitcoin prices generally performed weakly, but this often coincided with broader market bear trends and major industry events (such as the FTX collapse). However, in the long run, Bitcoin's price at the start of each World Cup has been significantly higher than the previous one. Notably, during the 2026 World Cup, cryptocurrency prediction markets have shown unprecedented activity, with a surge in trading volume, becoming a major highlight of the event and attracting a large number of user participations.
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
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24H Trending
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Goldman Sachs analysts say Turkish investors are primarily moving funds withdrawn during the redemption crisis into Lira deposits.
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Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine, killing at least 3 people and cutting power to nearly 100,000 residents in the Chernihiv region.
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Natural gas is up 5.96% today, currently trading at $3.005.
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LIC reportedly leads bidding in NSE's $2.4 billion India IPO
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Two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran claimed to have received intelligence that the US was planning new attacks.
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US lithium recycler R3 Lithium eyes Vietnam battery business, in talks with auto, electronics firms and government
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Jefferies: Meta AI agent Muse goes viral, AI PCB market size expected to reach $73 billion by 2030, ABF substrate to reach $30 billion.
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South Korea's antitrust regulator opens preliminary review of Uber's planned $13.7B acquisition of Delivery Hero
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion in inflows on Monday, marking their largest single-day inflow since October 6, 2025, and the ninth largest inflow ever.
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Bitcoin ETF flows fluctuate, price breaks $85,000: What does the second half of the bull run hold?
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