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Inflation
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US Inflation Falls for Second Straight Month: July CPI Annual Rate at 3.4%, PPI at 4.7%, Leading to September Fed Rate Hike Odds Dropping from 55% to 32%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose just 0.1% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate down to 3.4% from June's 3.5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was flat month-over-mon
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Traders Pare Bets on Fed Rate Hike This Year as Oil Prices Fall, Reinforcing Positive Inflation Outlook
Bond traders stopped fully pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year amid a retreat in oil prices that reinforced positive sentiment on the inflation outlook.
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Analysis indicates that under the leadership of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, the September meeting may once again keep interest rates unchanged.
The article analyzes that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has maintained interest rates unchanged in two meetings since taking office in March. Despite the largest divergence in a decade at the m
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Oxford Economics expects July headline PCE inflation to rise 3.6% year-over-year, slightly easing from June's 3.7%, and anticipates the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026.
Oxford Economics expects July headline PCE inflation to rise 3.6% year-over-year, slightly easing from June's 3.7%, and anticipates the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026. The firm cit
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Fed's Hammack questions if public can wait another 3-4 years for 2% inflation target
Fed's Hammack questions if public can wait another 3-4 years for 2% inflation target
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FED'S BARKIN: CURRENT LEVELS OF FEDERAL DEBT ARE AN INFLATIONARY "WIND" THAT THE FED HAS TO NAVIGATE AGAINST
FED'S BARKIN: CURRENT LEVELS OF FEDERAL DEBT ARE AN INFLATIONARY "WIND" THAT THE FED HAS TO NAVIGATE AGAINST
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Federal Reserve's Barkin says rate hikes still possible, bringing inflation down to 2% remains an open question.
Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin noted that inflation may slow due to easing wage pressures, fading tariff and oil shocks, but price pressures may persist. He added that many Federal Reserve
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Silver futures opened at $65.46 per ounce on Thursday, a year-on-year increase of 70.2%. The market is focused on the upcoming PPI report.
Silver September futures opened at $65.46 per ounce on Thursday, down 0.4% from Wednesday's closing price of $65.70. As of 8:11 AM ET, silver prices edged lower to $65.23. Silver's year-over-year gain
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US July Producer Prices Unchanged M/M, Below Est. +0.2%; Core PPI Rises 0.2% M/M, Below Est. +0.3%
US July Producer Prices Unchanged M/M, Below Est. +0.2%; Core PPI Rises 0.2% M/M, Below Est. +0.3%; Producer prices rose 4.7% Y/Y, below est. +4.9%; Core PPI rose 4.2% Y/Y, in line with est. +4.2%.
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Gold futures opened flat at $4,468.80 an ounce, with a monthly gain of nearly 10%, as the market focused on the PPI report to gauge the Federal Reserve's September rate hike prospects.
Gold futures for December delivery opened at $4,468.80 per ounce on Thursday, August 13, Eastern Time, flat with Wednesday's closing price, and were trading at $4,441.10 as of 7:53 AM. Gold prices hav
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Despite the UK economy growing by 0.4% in the second quarter, the International Monetary Fund warned that a war with Iran could hit UK economic growth harder than other rich nations.
Official UK data shows that the economy grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, following a 0.6% increase in the first quarter, with business investment rising by 1.7%, exceeding the expectations of econo
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CreditSights analysis suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates until the first half of 2027.
The agency noted that U.S. July inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%, with decelerating wage growth and weakening employment data. Labor market uncertainties may prompt the Federal Reserve to remain on
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U.S. Treasury yields dip, with 10-year note falling over one basis point to 4.674%, as Wall Street awaits wholesale inflation data
The 2-year Treasury note yield fell over 2 basis points to 4.176%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell one basis point to 5.236%. Investors are digesting July's inflation print and looking ahead
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South Korea's KOSPI index rose 3.6% on Thursday, rebounding approximately 22% from its July 30 low to enter a technical bull market.
South Korea's benchmark stock index, KOSPI, rose 3.6% on Thursday, rebounding approximately 22% from its July 30 low, officially entering a technical bull market. This rally was primarily driven by ch
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Japan's July PPI rose 7.2% year-on-year, fueling market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in September.
Data released by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Thursday showed that the Corporate Goods Price Index (PPI) rose by 7.2% year-on-year in July, slightly lower than the revised 7.3% in June, but still remain
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Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (July) rose 0.1% MoM, 7.2% YoY; Export Price Index fell 0.6% MoM, while Import Price Index rose 0.3% MoM.
Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (July) rose 0.1% MoM, 7.2% YoY; Export Price Index fell 0.6% MoM, while Import Price Index rose 0.3% MoM.
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BBC reports: In Kingsport, Tennessee, a town that manufactures missiles for the Donald Trump administration, local residents remain steadfast in their support for Donald Trump, despite his national approval rating dropping to 32% due to the Iran war and rising cost of living.
The town's Holston Army Ammunition Plant, which produces explosives for Patriot missiles, warheads, and other heavy weapons, is the sole domestic supplier of certain critical explosive and propellant
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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury auction reached 4.683%, a new high since 2007.
The U.S. Treasury completed the auction of $42 billion in 10-year Treasury notes on Wednesday, with a high yield of 4.683%, the highest level since the 2007 global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the Con
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Goldman Sachs expects core PCE to rise by 0.23% month-over-month in July, slightly higher than core CPI and market consensus, and anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged until the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs expects core PCE to rise by 0.23% month-over-month in July, slightly higher than core CPI and market consensus, and anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged
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Santander's Stephen Stanley maintains forecast for Fed rate hikes in September and December, despite in-line July CPI report
Stanley believes July's broadly in-line inflation report, which showed unrounded core CPI rose 0.215% month-over-month (equivalent to a 2.6% annualized pace), is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve's
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Donald Trump claims the U.S. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz with a "WALL OF STEEL" naval blockade, stating Iran has no power to resist and is plagued by 300% inflation.
Donald Trump claims the U.S. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz with a "WALL OF STEEL" naval blockade, stating Iran has no power to resist and is plagued by 300% inflation.
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New estimate projects US seniors to see 3.6% Social Security COLA raise in 2027, highest in four years, boosting average monthly checks by ~$75.
The forecast by the Senior Citizens League is based on inflation data released Wednesday, which showed consumer prices in July rose 3.4% over the prior year. If this projection holds, the 2027 COLA wo
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JPMorgan Chase Strategists: The Federal Reserve Should Maintain Interest Rates, Expect Inflation to Gradually Decline
The chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase Asset Management said the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged, predicting a gradual decline in inflation, citing growing evidence that a
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Pimco Economist Tiffany Wilding Says Fed Will Stay on Hold in September
Wilding made the remarks on "Bloomberg Surveillance" while reacting to the latest US consumer price report and its implications for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
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Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points to 3.055% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since August 1996. This followed a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, driven by a rebound in oil
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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