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Inflation
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Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports plummeted to approximately 3 million barrels per day in August, marking a nine-year low, amid threats in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg reported on September 2 that tanker tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler showed Saudi Arabia's observable crude oil exports in August were approximately 3 million barrels per day, the lowest
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The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive time but warned that tariff wars pose an upside risk to inflation. 63% of analysts are betting on a rate hike in the first half of 2027.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting on September 2. In its statement, the central bank noted that the evolution of the economy and infla
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Bloomberg strategist Simon White analyzed that the U.S. Treasury's expansion of T-bill financing is making its function akin to a "shadow central bank," which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and push up inflation.
Simon White points out that the U.S. Treasury's continued expansion of T-bill financing has pushed T-bills to 22.7% of outstanding U.S. debt, exceeding the Treasury's informal 20% cap. He believes thi
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Goldman Sachs remains overweight equities for next 12 months, underweighting credit
Goldman Sachs maintains its overweight position on equities for the next 12 months, while underweighting credit, citing increasing late-cycle risks. The bank expects solid earnings, resilient but slow
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Circle K Owner Alimentation Couche-Tard Reports Record Fuel Sales But Warns Inflation, Fuel Costs Curb Consumer Spending; Shares Drop Most in Over 5 Months
Circle K Owner Alimentation Couche-Tard Reports Record Fuel Sales But Warns Inflation, Fuel Costs Curb Consumer Spending; Shares Drop Most in Over 5 Months
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New York Fed President John Williams said he is more open to interest-rate hikes, questioning if current monetary policy is sufficient to bring inflation to target.
New York Fed President John Williams, a leading advocate of the central bank’s “hold and wait” strategy on interest rates, stated in a television appearance Wednesday that there is “no clear science”
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IMPAX Asset Management anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market around the release of inflation and employment data.
IMPAX Asset Management anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market around the release of inflation and employment data.
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S&P 500 Steadies After Three-Day Skid as Oil Prices Halt Advance
US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, as the halt in oil price advances eased inflation concerns. Traders are now weighing the Federal Reserve’s potential path for interest-rate hikes.
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U.S. 10-year government bond yields hit a new high since November 2023, and oil prices approaching $95/barrel sparked market concerns about a Federal Reserve rate hike.
U.S. long-term government bond yields remained elevated on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, oil prices hovered around $95 per barrel, intensi
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Federal Reserve's No. 3 Official Williams: Inflation Slowing Gradually, Current Interest Rates at a "Good Level," Emphasizes Need for More Data
New York Fed President John Williams stated on Wednesday that inflation is slowly declining and current interest rate levels are in a "good place," emphasizing the need to accumulate more data before
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New York Fed President Williams: Strong US Economy, Driven by AI Investment, is Pushing Bond Yields Higher
John Williams stated that rising long-term bond yields reflect a robust U.S. economy, rather than growing inflation fears. He specifically cited heavy investment in AI, data centers, and technology as
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Bitcoin and Ethereum tumble 1.5% and 2.0% respectively on Wednesday as Iran war reignites
Bitcoin opened at $77,395.89, down 1.5% from Tuesday's opening price, while Ethereum opened at $2,417.66, down 2.0%. Prices continued to fall this morning following a new round of U.S. airstrikes agai
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The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.8% on Wednesday, a new high for 2023, as surging energy prices fueled inflation concerns.
A new round of attacks in the Iran war this week sent energy prices soaring again, intensifying the sell-off in global bond markets and pushing up government borrowing costs. Investors are bracing for
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European and UK Bonds Extend Losses on Wednesday as Rising Natural Gas Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns
European and UK Bonds Extend Losses on Wednesday as Rising Natural Gas Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds a differing view, arguing that interest rate hikes should not be used to counter the current supply shock.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that the current shock is inherently a supply shock and should not be addressed by raising interest rates unless "second or third-order effects" emerge,
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The Dow closed down 0.8% on Tuesday at 52,766.88 points, falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time in five months.
The Dow closed below its critical 50-day moving average (at 52849.85 points on the day) on Tuesday, the first time in nearly five months. Market analysts warn that this is typically seen as a precurso
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FTSE 100 futures fall 0.4%, pointing to extended losses for UK stocks amid rising inflation worries; pound also down 0.1%
FTSE 100 futures fall 0.4%, pointing to extended losses for UK stocks amid rising inflation worries; pound also down 0.1%
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Asian Stocks Slump, Oil Jumps to 5-Week High, US 10Y Yield Hits 3-Year Peak After Renewed US Airstrikes on Iran
Asian stocks fell broadly on Wednesday, with South Korea's KOSPI dropping over 3% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 2.6%. Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to $95.91 a barrel, reaching a five-week high, after t
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Australia posts second-quarter growth of 2.1%, beating expectations
Australia's economy expanded by 2.1% year on year in the second quarter, exceeding Reuters polled economists' estimate of 1.8%. This stronger-than-expected GDP print may allow the Reserve Bank of Aust
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South Korea's central bank expects September inflation to ease but underlying price pressures to persist
South Korea's central bank expects September inflation to ease from the previous month as a base effect fades, but underlying price pressures will likely persist, particularly in core items. Deputy Go
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The Wall Street Journal: Bond Market Gives World Leaders a "Failing Grade"
The Wall Street Journal analysis points out that this week's G20 summit failed to propose solutions to end deficits, inflation, and geopolitical turmoil, factors that are stirring investor sentiment a
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South Korea's August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% year-on-year, driven by increases in fuel and mobile subscription fees.
South Korea's August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% year-on-year, driven by increases in fuel and mobile subscription fees.
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Iran's central bank governor announced on Tuesday that it would inject $2 billion into the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rial, which has fallen to a new historic low amid 66% inflation.
Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati stated on Tuesday that Tehran possesses ample foreign exchange reserves, and the central bank is prepared to inject up to $2 billion into the forex mark
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Canadian Stocks Erase a Month of Gain as Tech, Banks, Gold Slide
Canadian stocks suffered their worst rout in nearly a month, driven by an escalation in Middle East tensions and persistent inflation worries, which triggered a selloff in technology and financial sha
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood dismisses Fed rate-hike fears, expects tech innovation to drive stronger growth and lower inflation
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood states that higher interest rates will not derail the technology boom, arguing that rapid innovation will drive stronger economic growth. Wood anticipates the current tech r
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U.S. Treasury yields retreated as the market focused on ADP employment data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that all Iranian airlines would be shut down starting Wednesday.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.943%, the 2-year yield dropped 1 basis point to 4.741%, and the 30-year yield declined 2 basis points to 5.272%. Investors are awaiting th
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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