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Polymarket
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Some idiot bet $101,000 on the World Cup quarterfinals, but France couldn't beat Morocco
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “dumb money” account that lost over $6.1 million (address: 0x224
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Musk: SpaceXAI will release Grok 4.5 to the public tomorrow; 2. The USD/KRW forward market saw a sell-off of the U.S. dollar related to the listing of SK Hynix ADRs; 3. Early CASHCAT buyers made a
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A "smart money" investor bet approximately $150,000 on France to defeat Morocco in the World Cup quarterfinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: France vs. Morocco,” a “smart money” account with a win rate exceeding 75% (Address:
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Weekly Profit of $2.4 Million; $710,000 Spent on Addresses; Egypt Fails to Win in Regular Time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup prediction event for the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “swisstony”—which had earned $2.4 million over the past 7 d
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$2 million profit in one week; $1.27 million spent on bets; total goals in Argentina vs. Egypt under 2.5
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket event predicting the total goals in the Argentina vs. Egypt match, the address “Sparkling8899”—which had earned $2 million over the p
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A "smart money" investor bet $101,000 on Argentina to defeat Egypt in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs. Egypt,” a “smart money” account that has generated $271,000 in profits (a
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Polymarket traders went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days
Svmuu News: According to Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader 1two1two (0x722...59A) went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss of $103,000 in 13 days. The account was created in June 2026, with a win ra
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With a 36% win rate, Colombia purchased $360,000 worth of tickets but was unable to defeat Switzerland
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Switzerland vs. Colombia,” the address 0x9d5d726b75be95f1b32c69e0bf5b71bfa63fe218—which had
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On Polymarket, the probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger by the end of September has dropped to 10%, with the figure falling 30% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, data from the “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?” prediction event on Polymarket shows that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officia
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Polymarket Team Members Seek Experts in Token Economy Model Design
Svmuu News: Mustafa Aljadery, a member of the Polymarket team, posted on X seeking talent for token economics model design, asking, “Who is the best in the world at building token economics models? Pl
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Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. will block public access to major Chinese AI models by the end of 2026.
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government will, by December 31, 2026, block the U.S. public’s access to major Chinese AI models through legislation, executive
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Total profits exceed $1.5 million; "smart money" bets $200,000 on Spain to beat Portugal
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup Round of 16 match between Portugal and Spain, the address RJW1—which has generated total profits exceeding $1.5 million—pur
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A "smart money" investor bought $108,000 worth of bets on Portugal failing to defeat Spain in the World Cup Round of 16.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Portugal,” a “smart money” account with total profits nearing $455,000 (addre
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A "smart money" investor bet $170,000 on Spain to beat Portugal in the World Cup Round of 16
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Portugal,” account RJW1 (address: 0x85f031d069de300055900c4055c1baeb6bde3f67)
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BitMart Wallet Launches Prediction Market, Supporting Real-Time Trading During the World Cup
Svmuu News: According to official reports, BitMart Wallet’s brand-new prediction market is now live, covering a wide range of topics including the World Cup, sporting events, crypto market trends, and
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AlphAi Upgrades to Support Polymarket-Compatible Prediction Market Experience, Adding AI Analytics and Real-Time Signals
Svmuu News: According to official reports, the Web3 trading platform AlphAi has announced an upgrade to its Polymarket-compatible prediction market experience, further integrating prediction markets i
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Ansem: BullpenFi, the one-stop trading platform he co-founded
Svmuu News: Crypto influencer Ansem stated on X that BullpenFi is a one-stop trading platform he co-founded. The platform supports trading of Solana-based meme coins, Hyperliquid perpetual contracts,
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The BM Wallet Prediction Market has officially launched, with the World Cup section as its first featured topic.
Svmuu News: According to official reports, the custodial Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched a prediction market feature. Users can now participate in predicting real-world events directly within the w
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Trading volume on Polymarket’s World Cup winner prediction market has surpassed $3.9 billion, with France’s odds of winning rising to 35.1%
Svmuu News: According to Polymarket data, the cumulative trading volume in the 2026 World Cup winner prediction market has surpassed $3.9 billion. Among the contenders, France’s probability of winning
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Smart money is collectively betting that Mexico will not win in regulation time; the top holding addresses have collectively made a profit of $20.3 million.
Pre-event position data from the PPP prediction market tool shows that in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Round of 16: Mexico vs. England,” multiple profitable addresses bet that Mexico wou
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On Polymarket, the probability of “LeBron James joining the Cavaliers” has risen sharply to 58%, up 19% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the multiple-choice prediction event on Polymarket titled “Which team will LeBron James play for next season?”, the probability of him joining the C
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A former Polymarket team member says the POLY token won’t be launched in the short term, and it may be a long wait
Svmuu News: In response to community users’ analysis suggesting that Polymarket might launch the POLY token in the fourth quarter of this year (or in 2028), Greg, a former Polymarket team member, stat
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A "smart money" bettor placed a bet of approximately $200,000 on the World Cup match between Brazil and Norway, betting that the total number of goals scored in regulation time would be greater than 2.5.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Round of 16: Brazil vs. Norway,” an account with total profits of nearly $16.68 million (Address: 0x
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On Polymarket, the probability that “BLG will achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)” has risen to 21%, up 8% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market tracking, the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship has officially begun. On Polymarket, the probability of the event “Will BLG achiev
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The U.S. 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.97% on Monday, and Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% on Monday, just 3 basis points shy of the 5% threshold, while the 30-year Treasury yield hovered at 5.35%. Brent crude prices climbed to $107 per barrel,
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Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, making it harder for traders to profit, experts say
Experts note that the institutionalization of prediction markets is eroding the edge of skilled traders. According to an academic paper analyzing $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades, roughly 27% of do
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A Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won ~$22,000 on Companies Audited by KPMG, Per Bubblemaps Analysis
A mysterious Polymarket user earned approximately $22,000 through a series of nearly perfect bets on the quarterly earnings of 18 companies audited by KPMG, including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, and Door
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Europe’s top regulator ESMA questions Polymarket and Kalshi’s EU access, warning event contracts may fall under binary-options bans, MiCA or gambling laws
Europe’s top regulator ESMA questions Polymarket and Kalshi’s EU access, warning event contracts may fall under binary-options bans, MiCA or gambling laws
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Polymarket, a crypto prediction market, has appointed Warren Jenson, former Amazon CFO, as its first Chief Financial Officer.
Polymarket announced the appointment of veteran executive Warren Jenson as its first Chief Financial Officer. Jenson previously served as CFO at Amazon and currently sits on the boards of companies su
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Adobe reports Q3 earnings after market close, with prediction markets betting on CEO Narayen's key phrases
Polymarket traders give Adobe roughly a 92% chance of beating the market's $6.08 non-GAAP EPS benchmark. On Kalshi, traders are betting on specific words CEO Shantanu Narayen and his team will say on
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Anthropic's IPO is still most likely to occur in October, with Polymarket data indicating a delay in the roadshow.
Polymarket data indicates that Anthropic's IPO is most likely to occur in October, with an implied probability of 63%, despite reports of a delayed roadshow. The roadshow is not expected to begin befo
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Micron (MU) stock surged 256% in 2026, with analysts raising consensus target to $1,513 and FY2027 EPS estimates from $103 to $155.
Micron Technology's stock closed Friday at $1,016.59, driven by record DRAM pricing and AI datacenter memory demand. The company reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year-over-
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UK regulator FCA weighs easing ban on financial prediction markets, reportedly held talks with trading platforms as Britons turn to Polymarket and Kalshi
The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly considering easing its ban on financial prediction markets. The regulator held talks with trading platforms, as British citizens have increasin
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LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership in new social media video, six weeks after his free agency decision generated $273 million in prediction market volume
Philadelphia 76ers forward LeBron James posted a 14-second video on X and Instagram showing him entering a stylized Polymarket office with the caption "Welcome to Polymarket HQ. Coming soon," and "In
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Prediction market Polymarket launches cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, offering 20x leverage.
Prediction market Polymarket has launched perpetual futures contracts covering 10 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering investors up to 20x leverage. Users can open long or short
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Polymarket Launches Perpetual Oil Futures in 24/7 Trading Push
The move sees Polymarket stepping into a market that rival Kalshi Inc. is also seeking to enter, as trading venues compete to offer round-the-clock access to the commodity.
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Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined volume falls 15% in August to $45.33 billion, marking first monthly decline in a year
The combined monthly volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US fell 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion, marking the first decline since August 2025. Specifically, Kalshi recorded $37.17 billion in
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Donald Trump's son's co-owned fund, 1789 Capital, led Polymarket's $1 billion funding round, valuing the latter at $21 billion.
1789 Capital, a venture capital fund co-founded by Donald Trump's son, is leading a funding round of approximately $1 billion for prediction market platform Polymarket, with the fund contributing arou
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Donald Trump Jr.'s fund, 1789 Capital, has made an additional investment of approximately $300 million into the prediction market Polymarket. This funding round will bring Polymarket's valuation to about $21 billion.
Donald Trump Jr.'s fund, 1789 Capital, has made an additional investment of approximately $300 million into the prediction market Polymarket. This funding round will bring Polymarket's valuation to ab
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Anthropic IPO Process Accelerates: Plans to Allow Early Shareholders to Cash Out and Extend Lock-up Period; Prospectus Expected After US Labor Day on September 7, with Listing as Early as Late September
AI startup Anthropic is considering allowing existing shareholders to sell some shares in its IPO, while also exploring a lock-up period exceeding 180 days to balance the monetization needs of early i
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Donald Trump Jr. advised Republican state attorneys general not to fight prediction markets, NYT reports
The New York Times reported on Thursday that Donald Trump Jr., an advisor to two major prediction market platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket), told Republican attorneys general in March to back off the i
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Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, prediction market traders are betting on the company to beat earnings expectations, with a 97% probability of success.
Traders on the online prediction market Polymarket believe there’s a 97% chance NVIDIA will beat Wall Street’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations when it reports earnings after market clos
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Prediction markets doubt Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond interventions, see 10-year yield hitting new highs in 2026
Prediction market traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are skeptical that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond interventions will significantly lower yields. Speculators on Kalshi see a
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Analysts believe Salesforce (CRM) stock is poised for a rally after its earnings release on August 26, driven by strong AI business growth and Polymarket's prediction of a 91% probability of an earnings beat.
Analysis indicates that Salesforce (CRM) stock performs well ahead of its Q2 FY2027 earnings report on August 26, citing reasons such as its Agentforce annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $1 bil
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Prediction markets show Anthropic is poised to surpass Elon Musk's SpaceX as the largest IPO in 2026.
According to Polymarket data, prediction markets show that AI company Anthropic is rapidly closing the gap with SpaceX, with the potential to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) of 2026 a
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
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