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9/17
00:21
JPMorgan Chase Global Macro Conference Minutes: Geopolitical Risk Premium Expected to Persist Until 2027, Brent Crude Average Price Potentially Reaching $87/barrel in 2027
JPMorgan Chase's Strategic Research Department's meeting minutes indicate that geopolitical risk premiums are underestimated and are expected to persist until at least 2027. The commodities strategy team estimates that under a "permanent conflict" scenario, the average price of Brent crude oil could reach $87/barrel in 2027, significantly higher than the $64/barrel in the baseline scenario, with high oil prices potentially extending into the first half of 2027.
00:21
JPMorgan Chase Global Macro Conference Minutes: Expect "simultaneous rise" in equity and bond yields, S&P 500 year-end target set at 8,000 points
JPMorgan Chase's Strategic Research Department's meeting minutes indicated that one of the core signals from the conference was the potential for both equities and U.S. Treasury yields to rise simultaneously. JPMorgan Chase equity strategists set an S&P 500 year-end target of 8,000 points, believing that AI-driven capital expenditures and resilient earnings provide core support, and valuations have not yet reached extreme levels. The report also pointed out that rising long-term yields are a global structural trend, with fiscal deficits, Treasury issuance volume, and term premiums being the core drivers, and the total U.S. debt has reached $40 trillion.
00:00
China's AI film and television industry is accelerating towards industrialization: the Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival has established an independent AI film exhibition, and AIGC long-form content has landed in prime time on Hunan TV.
The China Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers Film Festival launched its first independent AI Film Exhibition brand on September 14, announcing submission rules for AI works. Requirements include AI-generated footage accounting for no less than 50% of the film, with feature films having a minimum length of 60 minutes. Concurrently, AIGC long-form content has entered traditional broadcasting channels, such as "Journey to the West: The Aftermath," which premiered in a prime-time slot on Hunan TV two weeks ago. Furthermore, the Beijing International Film Festival, Shanghai International Film Festival, and Hundred Flowers Awards have established AIGC-related sections. Platforms like Tencent Video, Youku, and iQIYI have also introduced AIGC content incentive programs. Leading film companies such as Daylight Entertainment and Yaoke Media have begun recruiting for "AI Producer" positions. Tomato Novel has initiated an AI theatrical film solicitation plan, co-producing the AI theatrical film "Son of the Moon" with the company.
9/16
23:52
Yemen Conflict Escalates: Houthis Attack Saudi Bases and Oil Facilities, Saudi Arabia Requests Missile Defense Support from Allies
Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed late Wednesday to have attacked Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait airbase and an oil facility in Yanbu port, and shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet. This followed 40 airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Houthi positions. Saudi Arabia has sought air defense support from allies including France, Pakistan, Egypt, and the UK due to insufficient missile interceptor stockpiles. US officials held direct talks with Houthi representatives in Oman last weekend, where the Houthis stated no intention to attack US vessels and pledged to abide by the 2025 ceasefire agreement, but the US ruled out direct military intervention.
23:45
UBS warns: US midterm elections approaching, stock market may face sharp fluctuations, historical data shows pre-election dips and post-election rallies
UBS Chief Economist Arend Kapteyn noted in a research report on Wednesday that with the US midterm elections approaching, this period has historically seen significantly amplified stock market volatility, and this year is unlikely to be an exception. He cited data indicating that September to October have been the most volatile months of the year since 1928. Historical patterns show that in midterm election years, the S&P 500 typically declines from late August to early October, but then sees an average return of 14% by March of the following year. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also warned that if Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress, the market could experience a significant downturn, posing a particular threat to AI-related assets.
23:44
Goldman Sachs warns: Soaring AI energy demand is equivalent to "rebuilding Japan," with turbines, transformers, and political resistance becoming the biggest bottlenecks.
Goldman Sachs' latest research warns that from early 2024 to the end of 2030, the additional electricity consumption from AI will be equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Japan, the world's fifth-largest power consumer. The report points out that the power demand from AI-driven data centers is expanding faster than expected, and the core contradiction on the supply side has shifted from "is there enough power" to "can it be built in time." Shortages of turbines, transformers, transmission lines, and skilled workers, as well as local political resistance, are becoming the real bottlenecks constraining supply delivery. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for US electricity demand growth from a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% to 3.5%. Its forecast for US data center electricity demand in 2030 has been significantly increased from 83 gigawatts to 108 gigawatts, while the projected increase in global data center electricity demand from 2025 has jumped from 117% to 170%. Capital expenditure forecasts for hyperscale cloud service providers have been simultaneously revised upwards: from $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion in 2027, and from $1.5 trillion to $2.1 trillion in 2029. The report emphasizes that there are currently over 300 local and regional moratoriums, and if the AI and power industries fail to develop a coordinated public communication strategy, political factors will become the ultimate hard constraint.
23:24
Trump plans to meet Gulf leaders at UN next Tuesday to discuss Iran war's endgame: report
U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet leaders from six Gulf Cooperation Council states on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, Axios reported. The discussions will focus on next steps for the war with Iran and U.S. proposals for a postwar strategy. This comes as Washington's ceasefire efforts have stalled, and Gulf states face escalating attacks from Iran and Iran-aligned Houthi militants, which have disrupted energy exports and rattled oil markets. Saudi Arabia recently shut its East-West Pipeline due to a drone attack, though additional shipments through Oman have eased supply fears. Trump also claimed Wednesday that Iran wants to make a deal, saying the war is nearing its end.
23:24
HSBC Cuts Back $38,000-Per-Kid School Perk for New HK Joiners and Transfers Amid Cost-Trimming Campaign
The long-standing education benefit, worth $38,000 per child, will be retained for existing employees in band three and managing director roles. However, new joiners and transfers at these levels will no longer receive it as CEO Georges Elhedery pushes ahead with a cost-trimming campaign. An HSBC spokesman was not immediately available for comment.
23:20
Japanese business executives are warning about the weak yen, with Kawasaki Heavy Industries considering moving production back to Japan, and Inpex's president stating that 100 yen to the dollar would be more appropriate.
Yoshinori Kanehana, chairman of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, stated at the Gastech conference on Tuesday that yen fluctuations make it difficult to formulate strategy, and the company would consider moving production back to Japan from the U.S. if the yen strengthens to 150. Takayuki Ueda, president and CEO of energy giant Inpex, believes that a USD/JPY exchange rate of 100 is an "appropriate" level, even though nearly 90% of the company's business is denominated in U.S. dollars and benefits from a weaker yen. Takeshi Hashimoto, chairman of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, also expressed a desire for stable currency markets and is "satisfied" with an exchange rate of 150-155. The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its policy meeting concluding on Friday.
23:18
Lookonchain monitoring: A trader was liquidated after shorting ZEC (USD 1 million).
On-chain monitoring data shows that trader 0x3c83, who closed a long position and shorted 767.2 ZEC (approximately $1 million) seven hours ago as ZEC rose, just had their short position completely liquidated.
22:56
The Japanese Yen fell past the 156 mark against the US Dollar, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signaled a hawkish stance.
The Japanese yen fell past the 156 mark against the dollar on Thursday morning, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and hawkish stance on its future policy outlook, which led to a general weakening of Asian currencies.
22:54
China Adds More Foreign Currencies to Central Clearing in Yuan's Global Push
China has expanded its onshore central clearing system to include more foreign currencies, a move aimed at promoting direct trading with the yuan and reducing reliance on the dollar.
22:48
Lookonchain: Two whale wallets accumulated nearly $13M in ETH, with one staking 2,695 ETH from Gemini
Lookonchain monitoring shows that a newly created wallet, 0xC2f1, withdrew 2,695 ETH ($6.94M) from Gemini 5 hours ago and staked it all. Additionally, wallet 0x3F2c withdrew 2,500 ETH ($6.02M) from Binance after 9 months of inactivity.
22:43
Copper Steadies as Traders Shrug Off Fed’s Hawkish Rate Signals
22:41
New Zealand's sovereign wealth fund has achieved a 14.2% annual return, ranking first globally, but its CEO warns that high returns in US equities are unsustainable.
Jo Townsend, CEO of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, announced on Wednesday that the fund achieved a 14.2% return for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, with its size reaching NZD 94 billion (approximately USD 54.4 billion). The fund was rated as the world's best-performing sovereign wealth fund by analytics firm Global SWF. However, Townsend warned that U.S. equities have delivered returns close to double their annualized returns over the past 20 years, and a mean reversion is expected, suggesting that the era of high returns may be coming to an end. The fund has lowered its long-term expected annual return from 7.8% to 7.2% and reduced its active risk budget. Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, expressed similar views last month.
22:40
Tata Sons Board to discuss RBI’s IPO mandate and whether outgoing Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran should stay on
22:36
Upbit will suspend its mobile ID verification service starting September 21 at 00:00 KST.
22:30
Global bond yields fell on Thursday, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping 3 basis points to 4.99%, as Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh vowed to curb inflation.
Global bond yields retreated on Thursday as markets calmed after the Federal Reserve's rate hike and Chairman Warsh's pledge to curb inflation. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.99%, ending an eight-day rally. Traders are now awaiting the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday.
22:14
JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Michele: Our team has bought long-dated government bonds in the US, Japan, and Australia, believing the bond market has reached an "extreme pain" tipping point.
JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Bob Michele stated that his team has started buying long-dated government bonds in the U.S., Japan, and Australia, believing current prices are "simply too cheap." In an interview on Wednesday, Michele said that multiple bullish factors are converging, including policy actions from the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan that will support the bond market. He also cited the upcoming midterm elections potentially stabilizing the Middle East situation, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's buyback program as a key stabilizing force for the market, with room for further increases. He believes the sell-off in long-dated bonds is excessive, and signs of a yield peak are emerging, adding that the current Fed rate hike will help policymakers reassert control over the situation.
22:14
China's A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index fall by 0.38% in early trading, with the biomedical sector surging. CRO and innovative drug stocks rose sharply. Hong Kong stocks, including the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index, both fell by over 1%, with major tech stocks generally declining.
On the morning of September 17, A-share major indices opened lower and then fluctuated downwards. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.30%. The biomedical sector was active, with CRO, weight-loss drug, and innovative drug concept stocks collectively surging. Among them, Nearshore Protein and Wanbang Biopharmaceuticals rose over 14%, and Jinshi Asia Pharmaceutical hit a 20CM daily limit. Hashrate chip concepts rebounded, with Moore Threads rising over 9%. Precious metals and oil & gas stocks generally adjusted.

In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.45%. Major tech giants such as Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, NetEase, and Baidu generally declined, while AI large model stock Zhipu rose 5% against the trend.

Most domestic commodity futures rose, with lithium carbonate up over 2%. Treasury futures fluctuated upwards, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.15%.
22:13
Trump said he spoke with Warsh before the Federal Reserve's rate hike, telling him, "Do whatever you want to do"; the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump stated that he had spoken with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh before the Fed's unanimous vote on Wednesday to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, telling Warsh, "Do whatever you want to do." Warsh, in response to external questions at a press conference, emphasized that the Federal Reserve's independence is a two-way street. Trump reiterated that evening that he wants Warsh to remain independent, but also insisted that US interest rates should be cut to 1%.
22:02
Singapore's ambition to become a major gold hub gains momentum with DBS Group Holdings Ltd. expanding its bullion storage capacity.
Singapore's ambition to become a major gold hub gains momentum with DBS Group Holdings Ltd. expanding its bullion storage capacity. Other banks are also considering similar moves.
21:59
Hong Kong Leans Into Yuan Bond Boom Amid Intensifying Debt Hub Rivalry
Hong Kong, which has been Asia's leading hub for bond underwriting for over a decade, is capitalizing on a record flurry of offshore yuan debt issuance as competition for fixed-income business among financial centers intensifies.
21:56
Nick Timiraos: Only one Fed policymaker now projects a "long-run" rate below 3%, compared to 10 two years ago; 11 now see it above 3%
Nick Timiraos: Only one Fed policymaker now projects a "long-run" rate below 3%, compared to 10 two years ago; 11 now see it above 3%. Two years ago, when the Fed started lowering rates, 10 policymakers thought rates would eventually settle out below 3%, compared to 7 who thought rates would settle out above 3%. Two were right at 3%. Today, just one policymaker wrote down a "long-run" rate projection below 3%, while 11 think it is higher than 3%. Six think it is 3%. While it is usually hard to get worked up about the very-far-out years in the SEP, the projections for 2029, included in today's table, are notable because they show more than half of the 17 people who submitted a projection think rates will stay at or above 3.6% (the level they've been at all year, before this week's increase) to get inflation down to 2%. It underscores how risks to the long-run rate estimate are to the upsi
21:50
Lookonchain monitoring shows Garrett Jin, the largest on-chain ZEC short, is now down over $26M, holding a $51.5M short position with a liquidation price of $2,631.53.
21:49
Hong Kong stocks fell 0.8% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signaled further tightening, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.5%; China's CSI 300 Index dropped 0.2%.
21:49
Vitalik Buterin retweeted the Ethereum Foundation's post announcing that the 15th EF Protocol AMA is live on Reddit.
21:45
UK, Canada PMs Discuss AI Risks, Defence Cooperation in First Bilateral Meeting
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held their first bilateral meeting in Liverpool on Wednesday to advance cooperation on defence and artificial intelligence. The leaders agreed that governments and the tech sector must partner to ensure online safety and counter AI risks. Discussions on defence focused on reconciling competing blueprints for an allied military financing bank, with Canada applying to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force and joining the Global Combat Air Programme as an observer.
21:33
South Korean financial authorities said the Federal Reserve's rate hike would have a limited impact on the market, as the market had already priced in the expectation.
South Korea's financial authorities stated on Thursday that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in over three years to combat inflation is expected to have a limited impact on financial markets, as the market has already priced in this expectation. South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-weon, and Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee attended the relevant meeting.
21:30
"New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the next 6-9 months will be a high-risk period for markets, stating he has zeroed out his AI exposure and recommends a full defensive posture.
"New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach recently stated that the market has "crossed into the difficult side" and anticipates the next 6 to 9 months will be a high-risk period, advising investors to shift entirely to defense. He has zeroed out his AI exposure in his own investment portfolio, reduced equity holdings from 40% last quarter to 30%, and shifted to equal-weighted indices. Gundlach also warned that cracks in the AI-related credit market are widening, capital expansion has reached an extreme, and the intertwined risk exposures between private credit and the insurance industry will trigger severe consequences in the next downturn. He pointed out that the S&P 500's Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has reached 42, and historically, when this indicator exceeded 35, real returns over the subsequent 10 years were invariably negative.

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