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Bitcoin is on the verge of a major bullish configuration, as its 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages are close to aligning in an upward trend. This alignment, where the 50-day average is above the 100-day, and the 100-day is above the 200-day, would be the first since 2025. Currently, the 50-day average is at $79,495, the 100-day at $79,493, and the 200-day at $79,539. Such a setup indicates strong upward momentum across short, medium, and long-term trends, suggesting the cryptocurrency's recent recovery, which saw its price surge over 40% to $87,000 in Q3, is robust.

Senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Fadavi, stated on Sunday evening that the current oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is "insignificant." He added that there are no US warships present in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, or even the northern Indian Ocean, and that US warships are "100% vulnerable" to IRGC attacks. On the same day, Iran's chief negotiator and Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran's seven-day plan for reopening the waterway. Nevertheless, preliminary data from vessel tracking company Kpler shows that Middle Eastern oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day.

The amount of Ether (ETH) waiting to be staked on Ethereum has dropped to approximately 1.5 million, with an estimated queue time of about 25 days, down from 2 million ETH and 35 days in early September. However, the amount of ETH waiting to exit staking has increased more than fivefold in the past three days, reaching its highest level since 2026, primarily due to MetaMask beginning to withdraw validators after a security incident last week. As of Monday's early Asian trading, approximately 786,000 ETH are still waiting to exit, with an estimated wait time of nearly 14 days. MetaMask disclosed the security incident on September 30 and updated on October 1 that investigations found no impact on wallets or customer funds. Lido expects the affected ETH to gradually return to the staking queue, with the entire process potentially taking about 45 days.

Credit rating agency Moody's predicts that as Western populations age, shrinking workforces and rising costs will place immense pressure on public finances. The EU's population is expected to peak as early as 2029, after which it will begin a long-term, sustained decline. Moody's notes that the fiscal pressure from aging populations will materialize much earlier than the actual population decline. By 2050, the ratio of working-age people to those aged 65 and over in the G7 is projected to fall from the current 3:1 to 2:1, which will further drag down economic growth and public finances, including healthcare systems.

Nearly 200 people in Russia's Irkutsk region are under medical observation due to suspected exposure to the plague, local media reported. This follows the death of an employee at an anti-plague research institute in Irkutsk from an unknown form of the plague. Russia's public health watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor, stated that the employee was diagnosed with "pneumonia of unknown etiology" and described the region's sanitary and epidemiological situation as stable. According to Axios, the White House is monitoring the suspected cases and related quarantines in Russia, with a Donald Trump administration official stating that the administration is "aware, monitoring the outbreak, and evaluating response options."

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that while emerging market fixed income and foreign exchange assets are under pressure amid sharply rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, they are likely to see an orderly adjustment rather than a violent sell-off. The bank noted that the sensitivity of external shocks transmitted to emerging markets has significantly increased, with the divergence between local currency bond inflows and returns being the largest since 2013. Despite thinning spread buffers, Morgan Stanley maintains its bullish stance on carry trades in Egypt and Nigeria and advises investors to adopt defensive strategies to hedge against further dollar strength, particularly focusing on the South African Rand and Mexican Peso.

Hong Kong-based real estate private equity firm Gaw Capital filed on Friday to list its Gaw Capital Real Estate Private Debt OFC, aiming to become the first property-focused private debt fund on the Hong Kong stock exchange's main board. The move comes as traditional banks scale back commercial real estate lending. The fund has identified a US$291 million (HK$2.29 billion) pipeline of deals across Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, and the Maldives.

Seven South Korean financial institutions have suffered cyberattacks, resulting in personal data breaches. Shinhan Bank and Yegaram Savings Bank were affected, impacting approximately 25,000 and 40,000 individuals, respectively. Regulators have initiated emergency security measures and launched an investigation, suspecting a coordinated attack by the same perpetrator utilizing artificial intelligence.

US chip giant Qualcomm has agreed to a multi-year, broad patent licence agreement with China's Huawei Technologies, covering 5G, computing, and artificial intelligence. Huawei stated on Monday that the deal involves cross-licensing between both firms' patent portfolios and includes Qualcomm's purchase of specific Huawei US patents across compute, AI, and networking technologies. The transaction does not involve any other business cooperation and remains subject to regulatory approvals; the value of the deal was not disclosed.

Bitcoin bulls are once again closing in on the crucial $87,200 resistance zone, a level that has repeatedly rejected the cryptocurrency in recent weeks. This test comes days after Bitcoin briefly broke above $87,000 following surprisingly poor U.S. employment figures for September, which saw only 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate climb to 4.2%. Despite multiple attempts, bulls have failed to achieve a sustained breakout above the $87,000-$87,200 level.

The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department has started quarterly publication of labor market indicators. These indicators are considered suitable for complementary monitoring of the output gap, given their relevance to forecasting wages and prices amid intensifying labor supply constraints. The data, which also include updates on the output gap and potential growth rate, are released on a quarterly basis, typically on the third business day of January, April, July, and October.

According to Wu Blockchain, Payward, the parent company of Kraken, and Singapore Gulf Bank (SGB), a digital bank regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain, have announced a strategic partnership. Payward has integrated SGB's real-time multi-currency clearing network, SGB Net, to provide 24/7 instant settlement services for institutional clients in specific jurisdictions across Asia and the Gulf region. Initially, this service will support USD transactions for a select group of clients, with plans to expand to more clients and additional currencies. SGB will also connect to Payward's Kraken Prime to access digital asset liquidity and price trades for its clients.

Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, noted in his latest report that the US equity market has quietly fractured, with 51% of Russell 3000 components having fallen more than 20% from their June highs, officially entering bear market territory. He believes there is currently a divergence gap of approximately 12% between market breadth and index prices, and this divergence must be reconciled. Wilson emphasized that US Treasury volatility is a critical variable determining market direction: if bond volatility cannot subside, the S&P 500 index could drop to the 6800 to 7300 point range in the next month; if bond volatility cools down, individual stock gains will push the index higher. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 5.25%, the MOVE index, which measures US Treasury volatility, has broken above 100, while the VIX equity volatility index remains below 15, indicating a rare divergence between equity and bond volatility.

Lookonchain monitoring shows that crypto trader Machi (@machibigbrother) has achieved two more wins in PUMP token trading, bringing his total to 12 consecutive wins in the past week, with a total profit of $2.14 million. Currently, Machi holds long positions of 34,100 ETH (valued at $92.98 million), 456 BTC (valued at $39.41 million), 174,500 HYPE (valued at $15.84 million), and 425 million PUMP (valued at $2.72 million).

On Monday, the dollar fell and bond markets stabilized as investors pared bets on an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Trading was light in Asia due to holidays in China and South Korea, with markets largely influenced by Wall Street's performance last Friday.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened down 8 points, or 0.04%, at 23,963 points; the Tech Index fell 19 points, or 0.47%, to 4,138 points; and the China Enterprises Index dropped 9 points, or 0.12%, to 8,021 points.

Last week's data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in September, with non-farm payrolls for the prior two months also significantly revised down, virtually ruling out another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed hike this month, down from 64% a week ago.

The increased likelihood of a Fed pause this month pushed the Tokyo Nikkei Index to open up 804 points, or 1.18%, at 69,113 points, having risen by as much as 1,656 points during the session.

The recent global bond sell-off paused on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly retreating to 5.2643% and the 2-year yield at 4.8143%. The dollar weakened on reduced rate hike expectations, with the euro rebounding from a 17-month low to $1.1243 against the dollar, the pound slightly rising to $1.3241 against the dollar, and the dollar marginally falling to 157.81 against the yen.

Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, stated that while the labor market is generally stable, last Friday's revisions indicate that the U.S. economy experienced job losses in two of the first nine months of this year, and the risk of further job losses means the Fed cannot hike rates by another 100 basis points.

Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that although recent U.S. data has started to show inflation below expectations, market technicals, driven by forced selling from hedge funds and real estate investment trusts, might temporarily delay the downward trend in bond yields. He added that he does not expect this to be a prolonged sell-off and has taken an opportunistic bullish stance on 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

Elias Haddad, Head of Global Markets Strategy at BBH, believes that policy tightening in other regions and the increased likelihood of a Fed pause in October are negative for the dollar, but the outperformance of the U.S. economy and strong foreign demand for U.S. securities still present upside risks for the dollar.

In commodities, oil prices remained elevated after Yemen's Houthi group claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais.