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Forecasting the market
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Polymarket Probability of "U.S. Department of Homeland Security Shutdown Lasting Over 60 Days" Rises to 75%, Up 37% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary homeland security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and has sent it to the Senate.
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California Signs Executive Order Banning Insider Trading in Prediction Markets
Svmuu News: California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed an executive order prohibiting government-appointed officials from using non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to trade
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Strategy, BitMine, and Robinhood Stocks Hit Monthly Lows as Bitcoin Drops to Lowest Level Since March 2
Svmuu News Bitcoin fell to $65,720 on Friday, its lowest price since March 2, with recent trading around $65,804, marking a daily decline of over 4%. Ethereum dropped about 4% to $1,980, Solana fell 5
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Iranian Parliament Speaker Strongly Responds to US Military Invasion Threat, Polymarket Shows 63% Probability of US Ground Troops Entering Iran Before End of April
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the current probability of US ground troops entering Iran before the end of the month on Polymarket is 16%, while the probability of entering Iran before the e
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New Wallet Builds $200k Position on "US Will Not Invade Iran Before March 31"
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that a wallet created just four days ago on Polymarket has built a $200,000 position on "US will not invade Iran before March 31". The opening price was 86.7¢, and
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Polymarket Launches New Event "When Will the Trump Administration Terminate the Powell Criminal Investigation," Probability of Termination Before June Currently Reported at 56%
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that a new event, "When will the Trump administration terminate the Powell criminal investigation," has been launched on Polymarket. The probability of termination
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Polymarket's "Gold Falls Below $4300 by End of March" Probability Rises to 39%, Up 21% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that as the price of gold falls, the probability of the event "Gold falls below $4300 by the end of March" on Polymarket has risen to 39%, up 21% in 24 hours; addit
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Account with over $11 million in profit purchases a total of $300k on Detroit Pistons defeating New Orleans Pelicans in NBA regular season
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Detroit Pistons vs New Orleans Pelicans NBA Regular Season," an account with over $11 million in profit (address: 0x6a72f61
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ARK Invest, under Cathie Wood, Introduces Prediction Market Data, Leveraging Kalshi to Optimize Investment and Risk Hedging
Svmuu News ARK Invest, the investment firm led by Cathie Wood, announced that it will utilize data from the prediction market platform Kalshi to assist in investment decision-making, as well as for ri
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Polymarket's "Gold Falls Below $4300 Before End of March" Probability Temporarily Reported at 26%, Up 7% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that as gold prices fell today, the probability of the event "Gold falls below $4300 before the end of March" on Polymarket has risen to 26%, up 7% in 24 hours; add
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. Svmuu Skills has been launched for free, featuring structured output of curated information designed to save tokens; 2. Binance Alpha: The TRADOOR airdrop claim threshold is 242 points, and claimin
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Late Trading: Account with Over 93% Win Rate Purchases Approximately $150,000 in "Crude Oil Price Not Reaching $200 by End of March" to Secure $300 Profit
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that an account with a win rate exceeding 93% (0x3b8de6b527425e9c19fb2634f9c3d2e7dfaf2ce6) purchased approximately $150,000 worth of "crude oil price not reaching $
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Svmuu Skills is now available for free, featuring structured output of curated information to save tokens
Svmuu Skills is now available for free on ClawHub. Currently, most media-type Skills primarily repackage information feeds, which limits the effectiveness and efficiency of the information. The Skills
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U.S. lawmakers have introduced the PREDICT Act, which would prohibit the president and members of Congress from participating in prediction markets
Svmuu News: U.S. lawmakers have introduced the PREDICT Act, which would prohibit the president, members of Congress, and other high-ranking government officials from participating in prediction market
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Polymarket's "Trump to Visit China Before April 30" Probability Drops to 2%, Down 26% in 24 Hours
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel, the probability of the Polymarket event "Trump to visit China before April 30" has dropped to 2%, down 26% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume
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Account with Nearly $9 Million Loss Purchases $200,000 on Trail Blazers to Beat Bucks in NBA Regular Season
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "NBA Regular Season Trail Blazers vs. Bucks," an account with a loss of nearly $9 million (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53
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Polymarket's "Clarity Act Signed into Law by 2026" Probability Temporarily Reported at 54%, Down 11% in 24 Hours
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that, affected by industry division over the compromise proposal on the stablecoin revenue clause in the Clarity Act, the probability for the Polymarket event "Clar
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A suspected insider trader invested $43,600 to predict that the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement by March 31st or April 15th
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the trader "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS", who previously profited $66,400 by betting on "US airstrikes on Iran" and was suspected of engaging in insider trading
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The probability of "10-year US Treasury yield reaching 3.7% before 2027" on Polymarket is temporarily reported at 45%, up 21% in 24 hours
Monitoring by Svmuu Seer Channel shows that US Treasury bonds have recently been under pressure and declined. The probability of the event "10-year US Treasury yield reaching 3.7% before 2027" on Poly
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Profit over a million dollars account bought nearly $30,000 NBA regular season Celtics beat Thunder
Svmuu Seer prophet channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA regular season Celtics against the class listen" prediction event, a profit of more than $ 1 million account (address: 0x6ac5bb0
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Polymarket's probability for "gold falling below $4300 before the end of March" is temporarily reported at 16%, down 40% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer monitoring shows that as the price of gold rebounded sharply this morning, the probability of the event "gold falling below $4300 before the end of March" on Polymarket has dropped to 16%,
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Backpack: Suspected of Manipulating Prediction Market Users by Pumping BP Price, Not Backpack Team Members
Svmuu News Backpack posted on the X platform, stating that this morning, a Polymarket trader held a large number of open positions, betting that BP's FDV would exceed $200 million one day after the TG
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Account with over $1.3 million in profit purchases a total of $420,000 on Denver Nuggets to defeat Phoenix Suns in NBA regular season
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Regular Season: Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns," an account with over $1.3 million in profit (address: 0x6ac5bb06a
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Polymarket's "U.S. Department of Homeland Security Shutdown Ends by End of March" Probability Temporarily Reported at 54%, Down 26% in 1 Hour
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the U.S. Senate has voted to approve Senator Marin as the Secretary of Homeland Security. The probability of the event "U.S. Department of Homeland Security Sh
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Needham Says Crypto Rally Has Strong Momentum, Prediction Market Kalshi Expects Bitcoin to Reach $90,000 This Year
Needham stated that the cryptocurrency rebound is strong, believing that the large-scale sell-off has largely ended and investor attention is shifting towards digital assets. The prediction market Kal
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Yahoo Finance Review: Gemini exchange offers bank-grade security and regulation, but has higher trading fees and limited coin selection
Reviews indicate that the Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss brothers in 2014, operates as a New York trust company and is strictly regulated by state banking authorities, having reported no l
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Argus Downgrades DraftKings (DKNG) to Hold From Buy, Removes Price Target on Rising Costs, Tax Uncertainty
Argus noted that DraftKings' stock price has fallen by 43.22% over the past year, primarily due to high customer acquisition costs, rising state gaming taxes, and increased competition in prediction m
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
Under the planned tie-up, Gemini Titan will become the exclusive CFTC-regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. Gemini w
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Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Bans in Multiple US States Amid Legal Battles, While CFTC Defends Industry and Proposes New Rules
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is currently blocked for customers in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada, with Washington state authorities accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling bu
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Kalshi traders predict Bitcoin to end 2026 near current levels, around $75,000
Speculators on the prediction market platform estimate Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be approximately $75,000, based on an average of contracts. This forecast suggests a slight decline from
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Prediction Markets Increasingly Skeptical on Near-Term US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices the chances of a deal at 11% before March 1, 2027, 22% before January 1, 2028, and 35% before January 20, 2029.
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Research shows Bitcoin contracts on prediction market Kalshi increasingly lead Binance price discovery as BTC breaks $68,000
Research by financial forecasting firm Synth has found that the price movements of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi are increasingly predictive of subsequent Bitcoin price changes on Binance. Sin
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Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Kalshi Prediction Market Trading to Its ~3,000 Institutional Clients
The investment bank will help its institutional clients execute block event contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange. This move aims to increase institutional participation in prediction market
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
Prediction markets turn sharply skeptical on US-Iran nuclear deal, with Kalshi pricing odds at just 13% by March 2027
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Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin Attorney General in anticipation of state lawsuit over sports contracts
Prediction market platform Novig has filed a lawsuit against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and state gaming administrator John Dillett. The move is preemptive, as Novig anticipates Wisconsin wi
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Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting with cryptocurrency CEOs at the White House this Wednesday, sources say
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House this Wednesday that will bring together CEOs of cryptocurrency, prediction market, and artificial intelligence companies,
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Hyperliquid ETFs See Inflow Reversal Amidst Rising Perpetual Futures Competition
Funds including Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG), Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), and 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) initially performed well, with HYPG nearing $113 million in AUM and the la
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Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
Washington Court Orders Kalshi to Halt Most Prediction Market Offerings in the State, Though Allowing Commodities, Climate, Economics, and Finance-Related Markets to Continue
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Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
Coinbase's Prediction Markets Experiencing Degraded Performance
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Gemini shares slide after reporting $108 million loss; Winklevoss says 'we still have work to do'
The crypto exchange's prediction market volume nearly doubled as it continued expanding beyond traditional crypto trading.
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Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
Baltimore City Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting
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US CFTC to hold meeting on Aug. 20 to explore crypto, AI, and prediction market regulations with SEC, without waiting for CLARITY bill
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a meeting for its Innovation Advisory Committee on Aug. 20 to address regulation related to crypto assets, artificial intelligence and pred
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US CFTC cautions prediction market platforms over "deficient" incentive program filings, citing manipulation risks
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance, expressing concern over an increase in "procedurally or substantively deficient" filings from prediction market firms for ince
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Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
Polymarket taps ex-Uber and Bird exec Travis VanderZanden to boost growth
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SKALE Labs launches Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired paper-trading sandbox for training AI agents
SKALE Labs launched Agent Pit, a Polymarket-inspired, paper-trading prediction market sandbox on its zero-gas blockchain, allowing builders to train AI agents before taking them live on Polymarket.
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Gemini Exchange: The Path to Regulatory Compliance and Strategic Transformation
Founded in 2014 by the Winklevoss twins, the Gemini exchange is known for its strict regulatory compliance, holding a NYDFS trust charter and CFTC derivatives license. In 2025, Gemini filed for an IPO, and in 2026, it announced its "Gemini 2.0" strategy, shifting its focus to prediction markets and event contracts, while also adjusting its international market presence. Despite facing the Gemini Earn controversy and SEC charges, customer compensation has been completed. The platform is renowned for its security, but users have expressed negative feedback regarding its customer service and account issues.
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SX Network (SX) Token Analysis: Value, Applications, and Investment Considerations
SX Network is an EVM-compatible blockchain project focused on decentralized sports betting and prediction markets. Its native token, SX, plays a role in network governance, staking, paying gas fees, and obtaining fee discounts. SX Network has processed over $500 million in betting volume through its flagship dApp, SX Bet. However, as of the time of writing, the SX token has extremely low trading volume, and market liquidity faces challenges. This article will delve into SX's value proposition, technical features, tokenomics, and its potential investment risks.
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BOT (Bodhi) Coin Analysis: The Positioning and Current Status of Bodhi, a Decentralized Prediction Market Token
BOT, the native token of the Bodhi platform, aims to build a decentralized, transparent global prediction market. The project was originally developed on the Qtum blockchain, utilizing a replaceable oracle mechanism that allows holders to participate in arbitration, voting, and paying service fees. Bodhi was launched in 2017 with a total supply of 100 million BOT. As of recently, its market capitalization is approximately $1.67 million, with a unit price of about $0.04. Currently, the trading liquidity of BOT tokens is limited, and investors need to fully understand the risks involved.
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DPY Coin (Delphy): Project Overview and Current Market Status Analysis
DPY (Delphy) was once a mobile prediction market platform based on Ethereum, aiming to provide decentralized prediction services. However, as of August 2026, the market performance of DPY tokens has been extremely poor, with prices having fallen sharply from historical highs and market capitalization close to zero. Public information indicates that its trading liquidity has dried up, and it has been widely regarded as a high-risk asset, with almost no active trading market currently.
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POLK Coin Value Analysis: Is Polkamarkets' prediction market token worth long-term attention?
POLK is the native token of Polkamarkets, a decentralized prediction market platform initially based on Ethereum and later migrated to Polkadot. POLK is used for market creation, rewards, gamification, and transaction fee buybacks. As of August 11, 2026, POLK's market activity is extremely low, with both 24-hour trading volume and market capitalization at low levels, and a lack of a clear market narrative. Its long-term value depends on user adoption and ecosystem development, but it currently faces challenges of insufficient liquidity and limited market attention.
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Kalshi prediction market valuation soars to $22 billion, institutional demand drives strong growth
Prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a valuation of $22 billion after completing a $1 billion Series F funding round in May 2026, doubling its valuation in just five months. This significant growth is primarily attributed to accelerating institutional demand, with institutional trading volume surging by 800% over the past six months. As a platform federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has captured over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share and plans to utilize the new capital to expand its product suite, including block trading and risk products, to meet growing market demand. Despite a brief slowdown in overall industry growth, Kalshi itself has demonstrated strong growth momentum.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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THALES Coin Trading Guide: Learn About Its Name Change and Where to Buy It
The THALES token is the governance token of the Thales Protocol, which focuses on prediction markets. It is important to note that the THALES token was recently renamed to Overtime (OVER) and migrated to a new contract. As a result, most trading activity in the market is now centered around the OVER token. This article will outline the historical trading activity of the THALES token and details regarding its rebranding, and will note that users may trade the token via decentralized exchanges (DEXs) or certain centralized platforms.
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How do I buy and sell POLK? On which major exchanges is the POLK token listed?
POLK is the native token of the Polkamarkets platform, a DeFi-based prediction market designed to provide decentralized cross-chain information exchange and event prediction capabilities. The POLK token is primarily issued on the Ethereum blockchain, and users can buy and sell it on centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).This article will provide a detailed overview of how to trade POLK and the trading platforms where it is currently listed.
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What Is Augur (REP)? Analysis of REP Token Crowdfunding Price and Investment Prospects
Augur (REP) is a decentralized prediction market platform based on the Ethereum, which allows users to make predictions about real-world events. Its native token, REP, is primarily used for reporting and verifying event outcomes, ensuring the accuracy of the platform’s decentralized oracle.REP’s ICO was held in 2015 at a price of approximately $0.60, raising a total of about $5 million to $5.3 million. The investment outlook for REP depends on the adoption rate of the Augur platform, market competition, the regulatory environment, and its utility as a utility token—rather than as a passive investment.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Forecasting the market
24H Trending
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1
Crypto Adoption Reaches 25% in Europe's Four Largest Economies: Banks Accelerate Layout Under MiCA Push
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Dollar Rises, U.S. Treasury Yields Fall
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Retired Lineman Made Costly Error by Accepting $310,000 Pension Buyout Check Personally, Triggering 20% Federal Withholding and Potential Tax Penalties
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AI scammers are scouring obituaries to target widows, with one losing $7,000 after being told her late husband evaded taxes
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Exclusive: India plans to issue its first tokenized corporate bonds in September, to be issued by state-owned REC, worth less than $57 million, and will be settled using central bank digital currency
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Gemini partners with Apex Fintech Solutions to expand regulated crypto prediction markets
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T. Rowe Price to acquire fixed income fund manager F/m Investments, which manages $19bn in assets
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Ozon, Russia's second-largest online retailer, saw its shares drop by 12% after its warehouse was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack.
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Bybit to support STABLE (STABLE) network upgrade on Aug 26, 2026; deposits and withdrawals to be temporarily suspended.
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The Deep Integration Trend of TRON with FinTech
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