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Inflation
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An economist at the SF Fed estimates the medium-run neutral rate to be around 1.5%, suggesting current monetary policy is accommodative if underlying inflation is at least 2.5%.
An economist at the SF Fed estimates the medium-run neutral rate to be around 1.5%, suggesting current monetary policy is accommodative if underlying inflation is at least 2.5%.
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RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Upside Despite Fed Policy Uncertainty and Rate Hike Risks
Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes that concerns over Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, potential rate hikes, and valuation may not be enough to derail the c
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Man Group Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper Says Inflation Will Persistently Stay Above Fed's Target
Man Group Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper Says Inflation Will Persistently Stay Above Fed's Target
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U.S. stock futures were broadly lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures down 0.17%, after the S&P 500 index hit a record high last week.
U.S. equity futures were broadly lower early Monday, after the S&P 500 posted its third consecutive weekly gain and closed at a record high last week. Market sentiment was boosted by a strong second-q
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An investor more than triples their holdings in high-yield stock PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), which has a 13.2% dividend yield.
Investor Sean Williams states that his holdings in the business development company (BDC) PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT) have grown by 242% since the beginning of the year. He believes that
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Bank of Japan (BOJ): Will continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing to stabilize core CPI inflation around 2%
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated in its July 2026 "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" report that it would continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing in response to
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Bank of Japan (BOJ): Japan's economy is expected to continue growing moderately, with CPI year-on-year growth significantly above 2% in the second half of fiscal year 2026
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated in its July 2026 "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" report that the Japanese economy is likely to continue growing moderately, albeit at a slower pace, supported
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Goldman Sachs says market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes are still too aggressive given cooling inflation in the world's largest economy
Goldman Sachs says market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes are still too aggressive given cooling inflation in the world's largest economy
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Sri Lanka's inflation is expected to slow to the central bank's 5% target level in the second half of this year, said Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe.
Sri Lanka's inflation is expected to slow to the central bank's 5% target level in the second half of this year, said Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe.
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Al Jazeera: US-Iran War and Naval Blockade Cripple Iranian Economy, Annual Inflation Reaches 88%, President Pezeshkian Considers Raising Gasoline Prices
Reports indicate that Iran's annual inflation rate has reached approximately 88%, with food inflation exceeding 128%, and oil and fat commodity inflation soaring to 261%. Youth unemployment has risen
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AI "chipflation" sweeps the UK, with July CPI expected to rise 2.9% year-on-year, breaking the downward trend. The Bank of England warns that the window for interest rate cuts is narrowing.
The UK's upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 2.9% year-on-year, breaking the previous four-month trend of declining inflation. In addition to the seasonal jump in energy bi
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Lighters become essential in Gaza amid scarcity, prices surge to $27-33 from $0.33 pre-war
The ongoing Israeli siege and restrictions on goods have made lighters scarce and critical for daily life in Gaza, where residents rely on them to start fires for cooking and heating due to shortages
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JPMorgan Chase: Global Food Crisis May Erupt Next Year, Food Inflation Expected to Persist Until H1 2027 and Reach 5%
JPMorgan Chase published its latest research report, "Food Security Is National Security: A Compound Storm," on August 15, stating that the "five factors" of war, weather, storage, water resources, an
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Investigative journalist Bethany McLean: S&P 500 index funds have become a concentrated AI bet, not diversified investments.
Veteran investigative journalist Bethany McLean states that S&P 500 index funds are heavily skewed towards "hyperscale companies," making them a concentrated bet on the AI economy rather than offering
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Replicating the average U.S. couple's $3,120 monthly Social Security benefit requires a private portfolio of roughly $800,000 to $936,000, depending on withdrawal strategy.
The Social Security Administration's average monthly benefit for a retired couple is about $3,120, totaling $37,440 annually. To privately match this income stream, a portfolio of approximately $800,0
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Japanese companies' short-term corporate debt holdings double in two years to 17-year high amid inflation
Japanese companies' short-term corporate debt holdings double in two years to 17-year high amid inflation
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Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: Recent inflation data is encouraging, but I want to see more sustained evidence of cooling to confirm inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings this summer have made him optimistic, showing that a series of price disturbances, such as
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Nick Timiraos: Different inflation measures offer conflicting views on disinflation, with a newer version suggesting it has stalled.
Nick Timiraos noted that while the symmetric measure indicates inflation has not progressed towards the Fed's target for some time, and is lower than the core measure, two different approaches to filt
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Investors are flocking back to U.S. stocks, and bullish sentiment has returned to Wall Street.
A strong earnings season and falling inflation have driven the market's rebound from July's chip stock slump.
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US August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value fell to 51, the first decline in three months, lower than the expected 55; one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.3%.
The preliminary report released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the US consumer confidence index's preliminary reading for August fell to 51 from 55.2 in July, lower than the 55 ex
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Silver prices rose to $65.14 per ounce on Friday, after weaker inflation data this week reduced expectations of a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Silver futures opened lower on Friday but rebounded above $65 in early trading, reaching a high of $65.14 per ounce. The market generally believes that the weak inflation data released this week has r
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U.S. equity futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%, boosted by strong earnings and moderate data, poised for new record highs
U.S. stocks are poised to end the week at a record high, extending the upward momentum driven by strong earnings reports and cooling inflation data.
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South Korea's KOSPI index surged 2.41% on Friday to 6,977.34 points, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and ending a seven-week losing streak.
Asian-Pacific markets generally rose, influenced by cooling US inflation and reduced market expectations for a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Korea Composite Stock Price Inde
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Bitcoin slips below $63,000 as WTI crude tops $82 and bond yields rise
The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000. This comes as WTI crude oil climbs above $82 a barrel, adding to inflation pressure and weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as bond yiel
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood dismisses Fed rate-hike fears, expects tech innovation to drive stronger growth and lower inflation
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood states that higher interest rates will not derail the technology boom, arguing that rapid innovation will drive stronger economic growth. Wood anticipates the current tech r
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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