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Inflation
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U.S. July PCE Price Index Rose 0.2% MoM and 3.7% YoY, Both Slightly Higher Than Expected
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year in July. Both
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U.S. July PCE inflation data exceeded expectations, with core PCE rising 3.3% year-on-year. Market expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve have risen to 44%.
The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce, showed that the overall PCE price index rose by 3.7% year-over-year, and core PCE (excluding
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Bitcoin dips below $78,000 as US July PCE inflation data comes in higher than anticipated, also pressuring stocks and gold.
Bitcoin moved away from challenging the $80,000 mark after the July US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data was released, showing a slightly higher figure than market expectations. T
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U.S. July inflation was slightly higher than expected, with a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance fees being the main driver.
The US July inflation report showed that overall inflation was slightly higher than Wall Street expectations, mainly driven by a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance fees, which was the l
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US July PCE report shows moderate inflation, weak spending
The U.S. July personal income and expenditure report indicated relatively moderate underlying inflation growth and weak real spending. Although the weakness in spending was partly due to temporary fac
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USD rises by most in nearly four weeks after PCE data, recouping half of losses from Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond market move
The dollar's surge was driven by inflation data, which bolstered market expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates by year-end.
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US stocks opened mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed inflation data and NVIDIA earnings; Meta shares fell after reaching a settlement in social media addiction lawsuits
The U.S. stock market opened mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest inflation data and the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report. Technology stocks performed flat, with the semiconductor sector
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US July Durable Goods Orders Rise 1.1% MoM, Exceeding Expectations, But Core Capital Expenditures Weaken; PCE Inflation Meets Expectations, Market Focuses on the Federal Reserve's Kevin Warsh's Speech on Friday
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that preliminary durable goods orders for July increased by 1.1% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.5%. However,
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U.S. July PCE inflation remained at 3.7% year-on-year, while core PCE was flat at 3.3% month-on-month. The Treasury Department announced it would double the size of long-term bond buybacks starting next month.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported on Wednesday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.7% year-on-year in July, remaining flat with June and still well above the
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10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.645% after July PCE inflation report, with core PCE meeting expectations
Treasury yields were broadly flat on Wednesday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.645%, while the 30
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Capital Economics: July Core PCE Unlikely to Trigger Fed September Hike, Annual Inflation at 3.3% Supports Hold
Capital Economics states that July's core PCE increase is unlikely to trigger a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, with annual core inflation at 3.3% and economic growth remaining resili
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Trump says prices are coming down
Trump says prices are coming down
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The inaugural keynote speech by the Federal Reserve's Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference garnered significant attention.
Nick Timiraos analyzed that Kevin Warsh's first keynote speech at the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium was more significant than it would have been weeks ago. His July press conference had
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US July core PCE price index rose 3.3% annually and 0.2% monthly, in line with forecasts
The Commerce Department reported that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, showed core prices increased 3.3% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over
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Silver futures opened at $68.63 per ounce on Wednesday, holding steady at $68.62 during the session, with a monthly gain of 17%.
Silver futures for September delivery opened at $68.63 per ounce on Wednesday (August 26) ET, down 0.1% from Tuesday's closing price. As of 8:10 AM ET, silver prices held steady at $68.62. The market
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US July PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year, core PCE remained flat at 3.3% year-on-year, and consumer spending unexpectedly stalled.
Data released on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, with
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U.S. July core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, as sticky inflation divided Federal Reserve officials on the eve of the Jackson Hole meeting.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, flat with June and in line with expectations.
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US July core PCE rose 0.25% month-on-month, an annualized increase of 2.99%, and a 12-month change rate of 3.34%.
U.S. July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.25% month-over-month, with an annualized increase of 2.99%. This is largely consistent with the July 2025 data, keeping the 12-month chang
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US July annual PCE inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.7%, remaining well above Fed's 2% target for 65th straight month
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, increased 3.7% in the 12 months through July, unchanged from June. This figure exceeded economists'
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Core PCE Price Index Shows No Relief From Price Pressures Ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech, S&P 500 Futures Dip
The Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, indicated persistent price pressures, setting a high bar for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming speech at the annual Jackson H
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US Core PCE Rises 0.2% in July, Consumer Spending Stalls
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy), rose 0.2% month-over-month in July and advanced 3.3% from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted consume
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US July PCE Index rose 0.2% month-on-month, higher than expected, sparking market concerns about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-over-month in July, higher than the 0.1% predicted
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US July PCE Price Index rises 0.2% M/M and 3.7% Y/Y, both exceeding estimates; Core PCE matches expectations at 0.2% M/M and 3.3% Y/Y
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July increased by 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing the estimated 0.1% rise. Annually, the PCE Price Index climbed 3.7%, also above the 3
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Gold price pulls back from morning high of $4,730.90 to $4,674.60 as of 7:51 a.m. ET on Wednesday
Gold December futures opened at $4,715.70 per troy ounce on Wednesday, up 0.5% from Tuesday's close, and briefly touched $4,730.90 in early trading. The precious metal has rallied following the U.S. T
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
Inflation
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