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Polymarket
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $178,000 bet that France will defeat Norway in the World Cup group stage.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Group Stage, Group I, Matchday 3: France vs. Norway,” smart money generated profits exceeding $14.
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"Smart Money" Bets on the World Cup: U.S. Fails to Beat Turkey, Profits Exceed $1.3 Million
According to the PPP prediction market tool, the result of the prediction event on Polymarket for the “World Cup Group D Final Match: USA vs. Turkey,” which began at 10:00 a.m. this morning, has been
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A "smart money" investor bet $650,000 on Germany to defeat Ecuador in the World Cup group stage
According to monitoring data from the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “2026 World Cup Group E, Matchday 3: Germany vs. Ecuador,” the account “surfandturf” (address: 0x9f2
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Polymarket has added a new question: “What provisions will the U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement, to be reached by December 31, 2026, include?”
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel, Polymarket has added a new prediction event titled “What provisions will be included in a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement by December 31, 2026
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World Cup Sparks Prediction Markets: Polymarket Sees 300% Increase in Trading Volume; Kalshi Hits Record $1.16 Billion in Open Interest
Svmuu News: In the ten days leading up to the World Cup, trading volume in Polymarket’s soccer category exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days, with average daily tradi
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A "smart money" investor bought $100,000 worth of bets on Japan failing to defeat Sweden in the World Cup group stage.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for the “World Cup Group F final match between Japan and Sweden,” accounts with total profits exceeding $11.48 mil
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Rothera has captured 15% of the trading volume in World Cup-related contracts, with its open interest surpassing that of Polymarket.
According to Svmuu News, Artemis data shows that trading volume for World Cup-related event contracts on Rothera—Robinhood’s in-house prediction market platform—now accounts for 15% of total World Cup
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Polymarket Becomes the Bundesliga's Exclusive Prediction Market Partner in the U.S.
Svmuu News: Polymarket has been named the exclusive prediction market partner for the German Bundesliga (Bundesliga) in the U.S. market. Polymarket announced that official prediction contracts related
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Polymarket Documentation Update: No Disclosure of Short-Selling Eligibility Criteria; Users Encouraged to Focus on Genuine Interaction
Svmuu News: The FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) section of Polymarket’s official documentation shows “Updated Today” under the question “Does Polymarket have a token?” The latest updated content, tr
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Polymarket is accused of paying creators to film fake betting videos
Svmuu News: The crypto prediction market platform Polymarket has been accused of paying dozens of creators—mostly college-aged—to film betting videos on pages that closely resemble its website; some o
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"The White-Haired Stock Guru" Offers a Sharp Analysis of Market Regulation: Additional Regulatory Scrutiny Is on the Horizon; The Impact of Polymarket KOLs’ Paid Marketing on X’s Algorithmic Behavior Should Be Investigated
Svmuu News: In response to today’s Wall Street Journal report alleging that “Polymarket is accused of marketing to U.S. users through simulated trades and fake profit videos,” “White-Haired Stock Guru
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Polymarket has added a new bet: “Can BLG achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)?” The current probability is provisionally reported at 9%.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, with the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship set to begin on June 28, Polymarket has added a new bet: “Will BLG achiev
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Polymarket has been accused of marketing to U.S. users through simulated trades and videos showing fake profits
Svmuu News: The prediction market platform Polymarket has been accused of promoting its products on social media by having paid creators post videos of simulated trades and fake profits. Reports indic
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Polymarket Celebrates Its 6th Anniversary, with Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeding $88 Billion
Svmuu News: The founder of Polymarket posted on X to celebrate the platform’s 6th anniversary on June 17, stating, “I am truly grateful to be working on this venture, which means so much to me. It’s t
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Polymarket and Kalshi Will Step Up Anti-Fraud Measures During the World Cup
Svmuu News: Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have announced that they will accelerate the deployment of anti-fraud measures during the World Cup to combat potential fraud rings, while
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The final loss amounted to nearly one million dollars; a user bet on Spain to win in the Polymarket World Cup group stage match between Spain and Cape Verde.
Svmuu News: According to Polymarket data, the account betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) placed a bet on Spain to win during their World Cup group stage match against Cape
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Svmuu Morning Brief
1. It is "virtually impossible" for the CLARITY Act to pass before July 4; 2. Multiple organizations have filed a joint lawsuit against Kentucky’s 14.25% prediction market tax; Kalshi and Polymarket a
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NBA Finals G4: Knicks Edge Spurs in Nail-biter, Gate Prediction Market Shows Spurs with 65% Win Probability for G5
SvmuuNews, June 11 – The fourth game of the 2026 NBA Finals between the Knicks and the Spurs has officially concluded, with the New York Knicks narrowly defeating the San Antonio Spurs 107-106. This w
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A new wallet has purchased $102,000 on the World Cup opening match: South Africa to defeat Mexico
Svmuu Seer monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "World Cup Opening Match: Mexico vs. South Africa," a new wallet (address: 0xc6a63ad5a788a576d4acc9911c50fef9fde49458) purchased $10
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A smart money address purchased $220,000 worth of "Spurs to defeat Knicks" in NBA Finals Game 4
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer Channel, in the Polymarket event "NBA Finals Game 4: Spurs vs Knicks," a smart money address (0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563) that has earned over
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Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or eq
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Kalshi perpetual contract volume manipulation? Kalshi crypto head's remarks draw questions from Polymarket team members
Svmuu reported that CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequen
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Polymarket "Wembanyama wins NBA Finals MVP" probability rises to 38%, up 17% in 24 hours
Svmuu Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Wembanyama wins NBA Finals MVP" on Polymarket has risen to 38%, up 17% in 24 hours, surpassing Towns to move into second place; as
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Polymarket lists new event: "Will Trump attend the 2026 World Cup final in person"
Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Will U.S. President Donald Trump attend the 2026 World Cup final in person." As one of the key promoters and org
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The U.S. 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.97% on Monday, and Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% on Monday, just 3 basis points shy of the 5% threshold, while the 30-year Treasury yield hovered at 5.35%. Brent crude prices climbed to $107 per barrel,
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Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, making it harder for traders to profit, experts say
Experts note that the institutionalization of prediction markets is eroding the edge of skilled traders. According to an academic paper analyzing $13.76 billion in Polymarket trades, roughly 27% of do
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A Cluster of Polymarket Accounts Won ~$22,000 on Companies Audited by KPMG, Per Bubblemaps Analysis
A mysterious Polymarket user earned approximately $22,000 through a series of nearly perfect bets on the quarterly earnings of 18 companies audited by KPMG, including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, and Door
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Europe’s top regulator ESMA questions Polymarket and Kalshi’s EU access, warning event contracts may fall under binary-options bans, MiCA or gambling laws
Europe’s top regulator ESMA questions Polymarket and Kalshi’s EU access, warning event contracts may fall under binary-options bans, MiCA or gambling laws
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Polymarket, a crypto prediction market, has appointed Warren Jenson, former Amazon CFO, as its first Chief Financial Officer.
Polymarket announced the appointment of veteran executive Warren Jenson as its first Chief Financial Officer. Jenson previously served as CFO at Amazon and currently sits on the boards of companies su
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Adobe reports Q3 earnings after market close, with prediction markets betting on CEO Narayen's key phrases
Polymarket traders give Adobe roughly a 92% chance of beating the market's $6.08 non-GAAP EPS benchmark. On Kalshi, traders are betting on specific words CEO Shantanu Narayen and his team will say on
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Anthropic's IPO is still most likely to occur in October, with Polymarket data indicating a delay in the roadshow.
Polymarket data indicates that Anthropic's IPO is most likely to occur in October, with an implied probability of 63%, despite reports of a delayed roadshow. The roadshow is not expected to begin befo
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Micron (MU) stock surged 256% in 2026, with analysts raising consensus target to $1,513 and FY2027 EPS estimates from $103 to $155.
Micron Technology's stock closed Friday at $1,016.59, driven by record DRAM pricing and AI datacenter memory demand. The company reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year-over-
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UK regulator FCA weighs easing ban on financial prediction markets, reportedly held talks with trading platforms as Britons turn to Polymarket and Kalshi
The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly considering easing its ban on financial prediction markets. The regulator held talks with trading platforms, as British citizens have increasin
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LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership in new social media video, six weeks after his free agency decision generated $273 million in prediction market volume
Philadelphia 76ers forward LeBron James posted a 14-second video on X and Instagram showing him entering a stylized Polymarket office with the caption "Welcome to Polymarket HQ. Coming soon," and "In
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Prediction market Polymarket launches cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, offering 20x leverage.
Prediction market Polymarket has launched perpetual futures contracts covering 10 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering investors up to 20x leverage. Users can open long or short
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Polymarket Launches Perpetual Oil Futures in 24/7 Trading Push
The move sees Polymarket stepping into a market that rival Kalshi Inc. is also seeking to enter, as trading venues compete to offer round-the-clock access to the commodity.
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Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined volume falls 15% in August to $45.33 billion, marking first monthly decline in a year
The combined monthly volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US fell 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion, marking the first decline since August 2025. Specifically, Kalshi recorded $37.17 billion in
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Donald Trump's son's co-owned fund, 1789 Capital, led Polymarket's $1 billion funding round, valuing the latter at $21 billion.
1789 Capital, a venture capital fund co-founded by Donald Trump's son, is leading a funding round of approximately $1 billion for prediction market platform Polymarket, with the fund contributing arou
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Donald Trump Jr.'s fund, 1789 Capital, has made an additional investment of approximately $300 million into the prediction market Polymarket. This funding round will bring Polymarket's valuation to about $21 billion.
Donald Trump Jr.'s fund, 1789 Capital, has made an additional investment of approximately $300 million into the prediction market Polymarket. This funding round will bring Polymarket's valuation to ab
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Anthropic IPO Process Accelerates: Plans to Allow Early Shareholders to Cash Out and Extend Lock-up Period; Prospectus Expected After US Labor Day on September 7, with Listing as Early as Late September
AI startup Anthropic is considering allowing existing shareholders to sell some shares in its IPO, while also exploring a lock-up period exceeding 180 days to balance the monetization needs of early i
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Donald Trump Jr. advised Republican state attorneys general not to fight prediction markets, NYT reports
The New York Times reported on Thursday that Donald Trump Jr., an advisor to two major prediction market platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket), told Republican attorneys general in March to back off the i
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Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, prediction market traders are betting on the company to beat earnings expectations, with a 97% probability of success.
Traders on the online prediction market Polymarket believe there’s a 97% chance NVIDIA will beat Wall Street’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations when it reports earnings after market clos
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Judge stays CFTC's civil case against US soldier over illegal Polymarket bet, regulator now seeks to weigh in on criminal proceedings
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, while the regulator is attempting to weigh in on the related criminal case.
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Prediction markets doubt Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond interventions, see 10-year yield hitting new highs in 2026
Prediction market traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are skeptical that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond interventions will significantly lower yields. Speculators on Kalshi see a
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Analysts believe Salesforce (CRM) stock is poised for a rally after its earnings release on August 26, driven by strong AI business growth and Polymarket's prediction of a 91% probability of an earnings beat.
Analysis indicates that Salesforce (CRM) stock performs well ahead of its Q2 FY2027 earnings report on August 26, citing reasons such as its Agentforce annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $1 bil
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Prediction markets show Anthropic is poised to surpass Elon Musk's SpaceX as the largest IPO in 2026.
According to Polymarket data, prediction markets show that AI company Anthropic is rapidly closing the gap with SpaceX, with the potential to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) of 2026 a
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South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concerns
The Korea Media and Communications Commission stated that Polymarket's structure and operations amount to illegal gambling, despite its noncustodial design and smart contracts.
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JPMorgan Chase stopped providing banking services to prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns.
According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan Chase severed banking services with prediction market platform Polymarket in October last year, citing regulatory concerns. Despite the disruption in ban
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Polymarket
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