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Unusual $6M VIX Put Purchase Signals Declining Volatility Bet Ahead of Fed Decision
On Tuesday, a trader made an unusual $6 million purchase of deep in-the-money VIX puts, including 563 110-strike puts expiring Oct. 21 and 130-strike puts expiring Nov. 18. The VIX closed at 17.2, and
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US Fed's next interest-rate hike expected to 'bite' consumers; MarketWatch offers money prep advice
The US Federal Reserve appears to be nearing its first interest-rate hike in three years. Economists and financial experts suggest that many Americans will need a different game plan to navigate incre
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U.S. stock futures rise ahead of Fed rate decision, with market widely expecting first hike since 2023
S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.4%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.2%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assign a 92.5% probability to a quarter-p
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Bitcoin's correlation with Dollar Index and U.S. stocks collapses ahead of Fed meeting, as Clarity Act focus overshadows macro influences.
Bitcoin's short-window correlation with the Dollar Index has fallen to +0.08 from -0.54 over the past 30 days, while its link to the S&P 500 dropped to 0.43 from 0.75 yesterday, and to the Nasdaq to 0
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Bitcoin hovers around $80,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as traders turn to stablecoins for safety, with an unexpected decision not to raise rates potentially posing a greater risk.
CoinDesk reported that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, with the market pricing in a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Ahead of the decision, Bitcoin's p
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Zcash climbs nearly 6% to $1,200 as most major cryptocurrencies slide ahead of Fed rate decision
Zcash was the only major cryptocurrency in the green, rising to just above $1,200. XRP led the decliners, down over 7% to $1.29, while Ether and Solana each fell about 3%. Bitcoin, BNB, and Tron were
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Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $3.8 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, marking their best performance of the year.
Yahoo Finance analysis indicates that with Bitcoin's 25% surge in August, funds are flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs. Data from the Kalshi online prediction market shows a 21% probability of Bitcoin rea
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Gold Rebounds 0.8% to $4,326.44/oz Ahead of Fed Rate Decision; US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.04%, Highest Since 2007
Spot gold (XAU/USD) gained 0.8% to $4,326.44 an ounce on Wednesday, while gold futures increased 0.8% to $4,366.50. Silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.4% to $64.59 an ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.7%
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Historically, Fed rate hikes lead to short-term stock declines but long-term buying opportunities
New analysis from strategists at The Kobeissi Letter indicates that the S&P 500 has, on average, declined by 4.0% in the six weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle, based on seven episodes
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BlackRock Strategist Gargi Pal Chaudhuri Opposes Fed Hike, Recommends AI, Quality, and Healthcare Themes
BlackRock strategist Gargi Pal Chaudhuri recommends investors stay invested in the artificial-intelligence sector but broaden into themes like quality and healthcare.
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MarketWatch analysis suggests Fed rate hikes may not succeed in curbing long-term bond yield increases
According to a MarketWatch analysis, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow the rapid rise in longer-term yields, historical patterns indicate such efforts are unlikely to be successful.
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Markets are cautiously optimistic ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with U.S. Treasuries slightly stronger, crude oil gains narrowing, and equity index futures holding steady.
The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points later on Wednesday. Driven by this expectation, U.S. Treasury bonds saw a slight strengthening, crude
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The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, with the market watching whether Warsh signals continued rate hikes.
The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, increasing the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. However, major Wall Street institutions hold
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Hong Kong and mainland stocks rise, led by tech shares, snapping four-day losing streaks ahead of Fed decision
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.2% to 24,713, with the tech index up 0.8%. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.71% to 3,891, and the ChiNext Composite index surged 1.96% to 3,311, dr
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European Stocks Advance as Bond Selloff Eases Ahead of Fed Decision
European shares snapped two days of losses as oil prices eased and the bond selloff slowed, with traders looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later today.
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Invesco Says It's 'More Risky' If Fed Doesn't Hike Rates
Invesco Says It's 'More Risky' If Fed Doesn't Hike Rates
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Analyst: Federal Reserve Meeting May Challenge Chairman Warsh, Bitcoin Could Benefit
CoinDesk analysis suggests that with the market having almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike (bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4%), Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's f
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Oil falls, Asian stocks rise ahead of Fed rate decision
Crude prices declined on Wednesday but remained near multimonth highs, while Asian stocks gained as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
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Top economists in FT-Booth poll say Fed should defy Trump with rate rise to tame inflation
Top economists in FT-Booth poll say Fed should defy Trump with rate rise to tame inflation
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Bitcoin Under Renewed Pressure Amid Looming Fed Hike and Failed US Regulatory Bill
Bitcoin fell 4% in US trading and declined further in Asia on Wednesday, stabilizing around $75,700. The broader cryptocurrency market also weakened after the US failed to advance a key regulatory bil
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Citigroup and Goldman Sachs expect the Federal Reserve to implement a "dovish rate hike," with Kevin Warsh's press conference becoming the market's biggest suspense.
Wall Street is holding its breath for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Citi and Goldman Sachs are in rare agreement on their core assessment, expecting an almost certain rate
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JPMorgan Strategist Rasid: Inflation Data and Rising Yields Point to Fed Rate Hike
JPMorgan Global Market Strategist Raisah Rasid stated that incoming economic data and rising Treasury yields indicate the Federal Reserve will hike rates. She advised investors to focus on the 12- to
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Copper prices stabilized ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, as the market focused on rising inventories and easing spreads.
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange edged higher, extending the modest gains from the previous session. Prices had previously reached an all-time high last week, driven by bets on supply tight
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Asian stocks mixed, Hong Kong slips as US Fed rate hike looms; 10-year Treasury yield holds near 5%
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index opened up 0.5% before falling 36 points in early trading on Wednesday. Other Asian markets were mixed as global bond yields and oil prices paused ahead of the US
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Traders price in 4 Fed rate hikes by June 2027 as bitcoin slides below $83,000
Traders are pricing in four quarter-point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by June 2027, which would bring the federal funds rate to a 4.75% to 5% range. This comes as U.S. Treasury yields across the
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CoinDesk analysis: Bitcoin shows near-zero long-term correlation with rising bond yields, but short-term volatility could dampen sentiment
CoinDesk analysis indicates that over most of Bitcoin's history, the asset has shown little to no consistent correlation with bond yields, with 90-day, 180-day, and 1-year correlations with the U.S. 1
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New York Fed President Williams: Market expectations for another rate hike by year-end are "reasonable"; the AI boom is a demand shock that could make inflation more persistent.
New York Fed President Williams: Market expectations for another rate hike by year-end are "reasonable"; the AI boom is a demand shock that could make inflation more persistent.
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JPMorgan Chase analysts say the stock market's "fracture threshold" may have risen to the 5.5% to 6% range, driven by structural forces.
JPMorgan Chase analysts noted that structural forces, such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, and the services sector, have significantly weakened the constraints of traditional interest rate tra
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Global bond sell-off deepens as oil holds above $100, with Fed October rate hike expectations at ~70%
Global bond sell-off deepens as oil holds above $100, with Fed October rate hike expectations at ~70%. Rising yields are straining public finances.
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Gold maintained its decline as rising oil prices and strong US data intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Gold maintained its decline as rising oil prices and strong US data intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
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U.S. Treasury Market Faces "Perfect Storm": 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges 14 Basis Points to 5.113%, a New High Since 2007
The U.S. Treasury market experienced its worst single-day sell-off in nearly 18 months on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield surging approximately 14 basis points to close at 5.113%, breaking
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Analysts point out that a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will result in US credit card borrowers paying an additional $2 billion in interest over the next 12 months, with young and low-income households being more significantly affected.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate at the conclusion of its September meeting and hinted at another potential rate hike this year. Analysts noted that this 25-basis-point increase
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Hassett states Warsh is managing an unusually partisan Federal Reserve
Hassett states Warsh is managing an unusually partisan Federal Reserve
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Former White House economic advisor Hassett questions the Federal Reserve's rate hike decision
Former White House economic advisor Hassett questions the Federal Reserve's rate hike decision
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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Stablecoins hold nearly $200 billion in US debt, while money market funds absorbed 85% of the $550 billion new bill supply in July-August
Deputy Treasury Secretary Francis Brooke disclosed on September 22 that money market mutual funds absorbed approximately 85% of the over $550 billion in new Treasury bill supply issued by the US gover
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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The U.S. dollar recorded a seasonal gain in the last week of September due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
Data from the past decade shows that the last week of September is the strongest performing week for the U.S. dollar, and the current rally in the dollar suggests this trend will continue this year.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Dollar hits 8-week high, DXY at 100.862, as Fed hike bets surge; markets price 53% chance of Oct 25bp hike and fully price Dec hike
Dollar hits 8-week high, DXY at 100.862, as Fed hike bets surge; markets price 53% chance of Oct 25bp hike and fully price Dec hike
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Euro Hits Two-Month Low Against Dollar as Options Traders Bet on Further Weakness After Fed Rate Hike
The euro fell to its lowest in nearly two months versus the dollar, as options traders stepped up bets on further weakness following the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate increase.
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Copper Retreats From Near Record as Traders Weigh Fed Outlook
Industrial metals also fell, with traders assessing the outlook for US interest rates amid shifting oil prices and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
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Gold prices held steady at $4,360 an ounce, as progress in US-Iran negotiations eased market concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Gold prices fluctuated around $4,360/oz on Tuesday, ultimately closing up 0.4%. This followed U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that U.S. officials held a "very successful" meeting with Iranian
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Fed's Perli: The Federal Reserve's bond purchases will be adjusted based on market conditions, focusing on signs of funding stress to maintain ample reserves.
Roberto Perli, an official at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated on Tuesday that the Fed's purchases of U.S. Treasury bills are not on a preset path and will be adjusted in the future based
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The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Sounds AI Inflation Alarm: Can the Crypto Market Hold the $75,000 Mark?
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that excessive market expectations for AI productivity could lead to rising inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and potentially even triggering stagflation. This warning has garnered attention across global financial markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility recently. After surpassing the $80,000 mark, the market is closely watching whether it can consistently hold the critical support level of $75,000 amidst macroeconomic headwinds.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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From Event to Your Screen: The Four Hurdles a Financial News Alert Must Clear
By the time the news is seen, half the market move has already happened. The problem often lies not in judgment, but in the sequence of information arrival. A financial news flash, from event occurrence to reaching the reader, must pass through four checkpoints: source coverage, deduplication and compression, traceable origin, and multi-language synchronization. This article breaks down this chain and provides three questions for ordinary investors to filter out noise.
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What is FED Coin? An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency of the Same Name and the Concept of the Federal Reserve's Digital Currency
The term "FED coin" carries a dual meaning within the cryptocurrency space: it can refer to low-market-cap cryptocurrencies circulating on the market, such as "Federal Reserve (FED)" or "FEDCOIN," which have no official affiliation with the Federal Reserve System and exhibit extremely low trading volumes; alternatively, it may informally refer to the concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that the Federal Reserve is currently researching and exploring. This article will elaborate on the background, current status, and related developments of these two types of "FED coins" separately.
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Bitcoin Breaks $80,000: Buying Emerges Amid Volatile Federal Reserve Policy Expectations, Who's Positioning?
Bitcoin's price recently surged from around $63,000 in mid-August, briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 26, setting a multi-month high. This rally comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy fluctuate; the CME tool still shows a high probability of maintaining current interest rates, but expectations for a rate hike within the year have increased. On-chain data indicates that large "whale" investors actively accumulated Bitcoin when it retested the $60,000 mark, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded strong net inflows, suggesting that institutional capital is a significant driver of this rebound.
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Bitcoin tops $80,000, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause grow, who is actively positioning?
As of August 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000, marking its best week since 2023. This strong rebound comes as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in September are rising, with the probability of a pause in rate hikes briefly reaching 70%. Amid changing macroeconomic conditions and fluctuating ETF capital flows, large Bitcoin holders (whales) and institutional investors have emerged as the primary buying force, actively buying the dips and demonstrating a strategic willingness to allocate to scarce assets.
Federal Reserve
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