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Inflation
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Federal Reserve: AI-related investments are driving strong growth in output, while uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran remains a major risk
Svmuu News Federal Reserve The semi-annual report indicates that U.S. economic activity will continue to expand steadily overall in 2026, driven primarily by high-tech investment and government spendi
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Federal Reserve Semiannual Report: Inflation Remains High, M2 Money Supply Growth Rate Moderate
Svmuu News Federal Reserve released a semi-annual report, which noted that the labor market remains generally stable, with “solid” nominal wage growth accompanied by “strong” productivity gains; bank
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Sources: Bank of Japan (BOJ)s to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in July
Svmuu News: Sources say the Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, pledging to continue raising rates. Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise
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Kevin Warsh has assembled a team of external experts to review the Federal Reserve monetary policy framework
Svmuu News: Kevin Warsh, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has formed five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Reserve monetary policy framework, covering
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Federal Reserve Announcement of the Leadership and Objectives of Five Working Groups
Svmuu News Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of the working groups. Warsh, Chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that the goal of the working groups is to position the Federal Res
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Oil Prices Rise Nearly 10% Over Three Days as Markets Weigh Optimism Over AI Chips Against Risks of War with Iran
Svmuu News: Cointelegraph posted on X that the market is weighing optimism over AI chips against heightened risks of war with Iran; oil prices have risen nearly 10% in three days, and investors are in
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Barclays: Federal Reserves May Remain Unchanged Until the End of 2027
Svmuu News: According to Barclays’ baseline forecast, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2027. However, Barclays’ strategists still believe the risks are tilted
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In June, the New York Fed's 1-year inflation forecast stood at 3.67%, up from 3.46% previously.
Svmuu News: The New York Fed’s one-year inflation forecast for June was 3.67%, up from 3.46% previously. The New York Fed’s three-year inflation forecast for June rose to 3.3%, reaching its highest le
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Federal Reserve Williams: We Expect to Continue Seeing Strong Investment in AI
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Williams stated that strong investment in artificial intelligence is expected to continue, risks in the labor market are relatively balanced, the outlook for inflation has b
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Core PCE inflation may be revised downward by 0.2 percentage points; the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will adjust some of the methods used to calculate the PCE index
Svmuu News: The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced that it will adjust certain calculation methods for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price
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Institution: U.S. Earnings Season Is About to Begin; Investors Are Watching How High Oil Prices Will Affect Corporate Costs and Profit Margins
Svmuu News: Investment firm Summit Place Financial Advisors stated that the market expects companies’ second-quarter earnings to be generally strong, but investors will focus on the impact of high oil
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Federal Reserve Board Member Waller: Federal Reserve Will Not Deliberately Maintain Low Interest Rates
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Board Member Waller stated that Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve would not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the U.S. government finance its budget deficit
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Analysis: Bitcoin Bullish sentiment is supported by easing inflation expectations; the market is focused on July’s CPI data
Svmuu News: The crypto market continues to stabilize, with the Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This rally was primarily driven
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Bank of New York Mellon: Federal Reserve—The urgency for further tightening has diminished
Svmuu News: Jeff, a senior macro strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, pointed out that softer U.S. labor market data and improving inflation figures have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve
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BNP Paribas: Federal Reserve—The likelihood of action in July has decreased
Svmuu News: Isabelle Mateos i Lago, chief economist at BNP Paribas, said, “If the July nonfarm payrolls figure is very strong—nearing or exceeding 130,000—then I think the July meeting will be full of
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“Federal Reserve”: Donald Trump Sets the Tone, Federal Reserve Enters a New Era of “Forward-Looking Guidance”
Svmuu News: Nick Timiraos, a “Federal Reserve” correspondent, posted on X: Donald Trump stated that he believes Federal Reserve Chairman Wash is a dovish voice within the Federal Open Market Committee
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Allianz Analyst: Federal Reserve May Have to Raise Interest Rates in September
Svmuu News: Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, said, “The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still believe inflation will peak above 3.7%, and that artificial intelligence, f
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Bank Santander: Despite Weak June Employment Data, Federal Reserves Will Continue to Focus on Inflation
Svmuu News: Evercore ISI stated, “Employment data has returned to normal, and the Federal Reserve will continue to focus on inflation.” Economists believe the Federal Reserve will view the weak June e
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Analysis: Nonfarm Payrolls Data Weakens but Still Shows Growth; Federal Reserve’s Decision to Hold Rates Is Reassessed
Svmuu News: Analyst Eric Merlis said, “June’s nonfarm payrolls fell significantly short of expectations, in sharp contrast to the string of upward surprises earlier this year, but the labor market con
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Federal Reserve Daley emphasized that the dual mandate would remain unchanged, but expressed a desire to evaluate the economy using new methods.
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Daly said inflation should begin to slow, but there is significant uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.Speaking Thursday at a Bank of Spain event in Santander, Spai
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The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.2%, compared with the expected 4.30%
Svmuu News: The U.S. unemployment rate for June was 4.2%, compared with an expected rate of 4.30% and a previous reading of 4.30%. (Jin Shi)
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Energy Prices Fall, Swiss Inflation Rate Drops Slightly
Svmuu News: Switzerland’s inflation rate fell slightly in June, marking the first decline since prices surged due to rising energy costs following the outbreak of the war in Iran. The Swiss Federal St
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Warsh: Inflation Risks Have Eased Somewhat
Svmuu News Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said Wednesday that both inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined in recent weeks; at the same time, he reiterated that Federal Reserve is com
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Ed Yardeni: Warsh Is Driving Down 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields With His Hardline Stance on Inflation
Svmuu News: Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said he believes Warsh is attempting to lower borrowing costs by taking a hard line—that is, by pushing down gove
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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