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Inflation
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Fed Chairman Warsh: Market-driven tightening may substitute for policy action
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that recent "materially higher" real and nominal yields, a "top-decile intermeeting move," indicate that the reduction in forward guidance is working a
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Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns, Iran Conflict
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged, with policymakers waiting to gauge the economic fallout from higher energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict, which may have l
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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with three members voting to raise rates
The Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed stated that inflation remains above the 2% target, but the economy continues to expand at
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Investors see 1-in-3 chance of Fed rate hike amid Iran war inflation concerns
Investors are pricing in a one-in-three chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to combat inflation triggered by the war in Iran. The Fed is set to weigh these mounting inflatio
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Wall Street Expects Fed to Hold Rates Steady Today, But Warsh's Stance and Oil Surge Could Complicate Outlook
Wall Street widely anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged today. However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's focus on restoring the Fed's credibility and combating in
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Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George Expects Fed to Hold Rates Steady Today, Cites Inflation Concerns
Former Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at today's meeting. However, she remains concerned about the duration of elevated i
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GE HealthCare Beats Q2 Profit Estimates, Boosted by Strong Imaging Demand and Tariff Refunds
GE HealthCare on Wednesday reported second-quarter profit that beat Wall Street estimates. The medical device maker was boosted by strong demand for its diagnostic and imaging devices, as well as $129
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U.S. National Debt Hits Record $39.7 Trillion, Driving Investors to Bitcoin and Gold
The U.S. federal government's national debt has reached an all-time high of $39.7 trillion, growing by approximately $7 billion daily. This record debt level is prompting investors to increasingly tur
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Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as crypto market awaits US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $64,000, up 0.75%, as the broader crypto market shows mixed performance ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later today. US inflation at 4.1% keeps
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The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will kick off a period of frequent inflation and employment data releases over the next two weeks
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of July 30, Beijing time. This meeting will not include the Summary of Econo
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Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.5%-3.75%; Markets See 1/3 Chance of Surprise Hike, Focus on Chair Warsh's Message
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in its upcoming decision. However, markets still price in roughly a one-in-three chance of a surprise rate hi
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Markets Brace for Unpredictable Fed Meeting Amid Expectations of Unchanged Rates, Chairman Kevin Warsh's Influence Noted
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. However, Chairman Kevin Warsh's influence has reportedly made the meeting unusually unpredictable,
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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: Market Risks "Bigger Than Other People Think," Not Buying Stocks or US Treasuries Now
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated that current market risks are "probably bigger than other people think," and he is not buying stocks or U.S. Treasuries at current prices. Dimon highlighted escal
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Fed Chair Warsh Faces Pressure to Hike Rates Amid Stubborn Inflation, Despite Expected Pause This Week
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged this week, but Chair Kevin Warsh is under increasing pressure to hike rates soon to combat persistent inflation. Several Fed off
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Federal Reserve Kicks Off Policy Meeting, Expected to Hold Rates Steady Amid Inflationary Pressures from Iran War and AI Bottlenecks
The U.S. Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with an interest rate decision expected on Wednesday. Markets widely anticipate the central bank will keep interest rates unchange
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MarketWatch analysis: Surging El Niño could prolong inflation, hinder Fed rate cuts
A MarketWatch analysis suggests that a surging El Niño could prolong inflation, potentially preventing the U.S. Federal Reserve from implementing interest rate cuts. The report identifies refiners, ta
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Invesco and Rathbones Reduce UK Gilts Holdings Amid Political and Oil Price Concerns
Fund managers including Invesco Ltd. and Rathbones Asset Management Ltd. have reduced their holdings in UK government debt (gilts) this year. The decision stems from growing concerns over inflation an
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RBA Governor Bullock Says Australian Economy Cooling, Unsure If Current Rates Are Sufficient
Australia's central bank chief, Michele Bullock, stated that there are signs the economy is adjusting as anticipated. However, she remains unsure if this year's interest-rate hikes are enough to retur
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Citadel Securities expects surprise Fed rate hike this week
Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week. This would be a surprise move, which Citadel Securities believes would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility i
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Bitcoin traders brace for Fed's rate call and inflation this week
Bitcoin traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and upcoming inflation data this week.
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Goldman Sachs Warns of Rising Macro Risks, Raises US & European Default Forecasts
Goldman Sachs has warned that rising oil volatility is shifting investor focus from company earnings to broader macro risks, including inflation and higher interest rates. The bank expects the Federal
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Analyst: U.S. Wage Growth Slowdown May Be a Statistical Illusion; Labor Market Inflationary Pressures Persist, Supporting the Fed’s Stance on High Interest Rates
Some analysts point out that the slowdown in wage growth in the U.S. labor market may be a statistical illusion rather than a widespread cooling-off. Matt Klein of the economic analysis publication *T
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Federal Reserve Chair Warsh May Follow Greenspan's Lead and Consider Raising Interest Rates to Suppress Long-Term Rates
The new Federal Reserve Chair, Warsh, is facing a policy choice: whether to raise interest rates to suppress long-term rates in an effort to lower borrowing costs for the real economy, such as mortgag
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U.S. Bond Market Sends Signal to the Fed: "Hawkish" Rhetoric Alone Is Not Enough; Market Expects Rate Hikes to Combat Inflation
The U.S. Treasury market is sending a clear signal to Federal Reserve Chair Wash that strong anti-inflation rhetoric alone is not enough to reassure investors, as the market strongly anticipates inter
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Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 8 basis points to 3.055% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since August 1996. This followed a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, driven by a rebound in oil
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Asian Stocks, Bonds Set to Decline Thursday on Inflation Jitters
The decline tracks Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The yen, near a three-week low, wil
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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