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Inflation
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Analysts expect a 3.4% increase in the U.S. Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, the largest increase in four years.
Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson predicts that U.S. Social Security recipients will receive a 3.4% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027, which would be the largest inc
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Fund Managers Hold Highest Equity Allocation Since Nov 2021 Despite Bond Yield Concerns
Bank of America's latest survey shows global fund managers have 56% of their portfolios in equities, the highest proportion since November 2021. This bullishness persists even as the survey identifies
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Analysts: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's plan to increase long-term debt buybacks is, at best, a "circuit breaker" for the global bond sell-off.
Analysts noted that US Treasury Secretary Besant's plan to increase long-term debt buybacks triggered a global bond rally, but given concerns about fiscal distress and persistent global inflation, the
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WSJ analysis suggests U.S. Treasury market's coveted safe-haven status is fading
The upward trend in bond yields this year, driven by persistent inflation and heavy AI-linked corporate borrowing, indicates that Treasurys are appearing less safe. Their yields are no longer as low r
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The average bond yield in G7 countries rose to its highest level since 2008 in mid-August, as investors demanded higher compensation.
The average bond yield in G7 countries rose to its highest level since 2008 in mid-August, as investors demanded higher compensation. Reasons for investors to exit long-term sovereign debt include inc
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The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes show that officials believe interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool down.
The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, indicated that several officials assessed that further policy tightening might be necessary if inflation did not decline
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RBI Policymakers Opted to Wait for More Clarity on Inflation Before Changing Interest Rates, Though One Member Saw a Case for a Hike Later This Year, Minutes Showed
RBI Policymakers Opted to Wait for More Clarity on Inflation Before Changing Interest Rates, Though One Member Saw a Case for a Hike Later This Year, Minutes Showed
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UK Inflation Accelerates as Energy Bills Surge
UK Inflation Accelerates as Energy Bills Surge
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Australia's RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Says Rates Will Need to Rise If Prices Fail to Ease
Australia's RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Says Rates Will Need to Rise If Prices Fail to Ease
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The U.S. 30-year government bond yield surpassed 5.3% during intraday trading, reaching a new high since 2007. Wall Street analysts suggest that the bond market may be bidding farewell to the ultra-low interest rate environment.
On August 18, the US 30-year government bond yield briefly surpassed 5.3% during intraday trading, reaching its highest level since 2007; the 10-year yield also approached its early 2025 high. Wall St
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Uruguay's central bank held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive policy meeting, citing inflation below its target.
Uruguay's central bank held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive policy meeting, citing inflation below its target.
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Mortgage Rates Rise Slightly, With 7% Rates Back on Table Amid Bond Selloff
Mortgage rates rose slightly on Tuesday due to a deepening bond market selloff. Investors are offloading Treasurys amid concerns over the expanding U.S. debt load, government borrowing needs, and moun
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U.S. diesel refining margins surge to record $102/barrel amid global supply crunch, with inventories at lowest late-August level since 1996
U.S. diesel refining margins surge to record $102/barrel amid global supply crunch, with inventories at lowest late-August level since 1996. Supply disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran war, Strait of H
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Cleveland Fed Survey: Business Executives Expect CPI Inflation of 3.3% in Coming Year, Down From 3.7% in Q2
Business executives surveyed by the Cleveland Fed also anticipate little change in wage growth (2.8% for the coming year, vs 2.9% in last year's survey) and employment levels. Anticipated R&D spending
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US July Import Prices Fell 0.4% Month-over-Month, Export Prices Dropped 1.3%
US import prices for July decreased by 0.4% month-over-month, falling short of the estimated 0.1% increase. Export prices also saw a significant decline, dropping 1.3% month-over-month, which was belo
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ECB's Lane: Euro zone inflation one percentage point above ECB's 2% target is a lot
ECB's Lane: Euro zone inflation one percentage point above ECB's 2% target is a lot
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CoinDesk Analysis: Diesel-Crude Spread Soars to Record $102.20 Per Barrel, Energy Market "Cracks" Widen, Potentially Boosting Inflation, Bitcoin Could Be Affected
CoinDesk analysis indicates that the spread between diesel and crude oil (the "crack spread") has surged to a record high of $102.20 per barrel. Conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted global oil
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Ed Yardeni Raises S&P 500 2026 Price Target to 8,400, Implying 8% Further Gain
Well-known market strategist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research recently raised his S&P 500 price target for 2026 to 8,400. The current S&P 500 stands at approximately 7,756 as of August 17, meaning the n
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US stock futures extend losses, Dow down 0.2%, S&P 500 down 0.5%, Nasdaq 0.9% amid US-Iran tensions; Brent crude hits $91, US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.72%
US stock futures fell on Tuesday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sliding 0.2%, S&P 500 futures declining 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 contracts retreating 0.9%. This downturn is attributed to risin
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UBS warns: German natural gas inventories fall to 17-year low of 48% for this time of year, gas prices may surge this winter, inflation faces upside risk
Simon Penn, a macro strategist at UBS in London, noted in a report released on Monday that Germany's natural gas storage facilities are currently only 48% full, significantly lower than 65% a year ago
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Germany Is Set to Sell 30-Year Bonds at Highest Yield Since 2011
Germany's borrowing costs are poised to hit a 15-year high in a major sale of long-dated bonds, as investors demand greater compensation for lending to increasingly-indebted governments still grapplin
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Bond Rout Sends Long-Term Borrowing Costs to Highest in Decades Amid Investor Angst Over Inflation and AI Debt
Bond Rout Sends Long-Term Borrowing Costs to Highest in Decades Amid Investor Angst Over Inflation and AI Debt
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Nikkei Asia: Japan PM Takaichi's food tax cut plan may leave budget relying on inflation
Nikkei Asia comments that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's long-hoped-for consumption tax cut on food, while fulfilling a campaign pledge, is seen by many economists as a poor inflation respon
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The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.31% on Monday, reaching its highest level since June 2007.
Previously, the U.S. Treasury completed an auction of $25 billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.216%, the highest rate for a similar auction since 2001. Deep-seated market concerns about expanding
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US Treasury yields soar, with 10-year note hitting 5.125% and 2-year note topping 4.9%, threatening higher borrowing costs for consumers
Government debt costs leaped higher on Wednesday, driven by factors including a report showing increased inflation pressures, surging expectations for an October Fed rate hike, and weak demand at a 5-
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr supports further interest rate hikes, S&P Global's inflation indicator hits a new high since October 2022, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October rise to 71%.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that policymakers may need to further adjust policy to ensure inflation returns to target in a timely manner. On the same day, S&P Global's fl
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ECB's Lane: Eurozone HICP inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In a speech in Geneva, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, unveiled the ECB's September macroeconomic projections, forecasting HICP inflation for the Eurozone a
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McDonald's CEO expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist in restaurant industry
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated on Wednesday that the company does not anticipate a change in these conditions, viewing them as the new operating environment. He noted that in the most recent
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Fed Governor Barr: AI Boom, Tariffs, and Energy Prices Fueling Inflation; Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom and price pressures related to tariffs and energy have contributed to “upward price pressures.” He added that given rising inflation risks
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U.S. September PMI data surged to a five-year high, with input costs reaching their highest since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns.
U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 57.0, the Services PMI to 58.7, and the Composite PMI to 58.4. All figures substantially
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Germany's largest trade union, IG Metall, is seeking a 5% wage increase for 3.7 million workers, putting new pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
Germany's IG Metall union will launch a new round of wage negotiations in October, demanding a 5% pay raise for approximately 3.7 million workers in the metal and electrical components industries to c
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Eastmoney Securities Research Institute Report: The world has not yet entered a phase of full tightening, and there is room to increase allocation to US Treasury bonds.
Eastmoney Securities Research Institute released a macro special report on September 23, outlining the characteristics and patterns of ten global synchronized tightening cycles since the 1970s. The re
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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh responded to Donald Trump's demand for interest rate cuts to 1%, emphasizing that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and that rate hikes were unanimously approved by the committee.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly at the press conference that inflation has exceeded the target for over five consecutive years, and this 25 basis point rate hike to the 3.75%-4% range al
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Analysts conclude their longest upgrade cycle in five years, holding a net negative view on U.S. corporate earnings prospects for the first time.
For the first time in months, equity analysts have turned net negative on the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reflecting concerns about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on company
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Hong Kong's August overall consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY, underlying inflation 1.9%
Hong Kong's overall consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year in August, matching July's figure. The underlying inflation rate, which excludes one-off government relief measures, also remained unchang
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Nomura economists say Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's new inflation tracking method lacks predictive power
Economists at Nomura state that the new method Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh uses to gauge underlying inflation does not have better predictive power than core readings. Warsh revealed this method
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U.S. Treasury yields held steady in early trading, oil prices fluctuated, and the market focused on speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
U.S. Treasury yields were largely stable in early trading on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at 4.963%, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.771%, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.3%
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Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks warns: Out-of-control US fiscal discipline is the fundamental reason for rising interest rates, with the current deficit at about 6% of GDP.
Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks stated in his latest memo on Tuesday that the uncontrolled fiscal discipline in the U.S. is the fundamental reason for rising long-term interest rates, and that
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Boston Fed President Collins warns inflation could remain 'notably' above 2% target
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated that there is "an increased likelihood" of inflation staying "notably" above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. She explained her reasoning for back
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Singapore Core Inflation Rises Third Month to 2.2% in August, Highest Since 2024
Singapore's core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation costs, accelerated to 2.2% year-on-year in August, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest
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Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day.
Soaring diesel prices are costing European drivers an extra €203 million per day, with the cost of filling up a tank increasing by 40% since the beginning of the year.
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ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
ADB Warns: Asian Inflationary Pressures to Persist Until 2027
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
U.S. Stocks Mixed as AI Buzz Stokes Tech Gains to Record Highs, Energy Inflation Fears Linger
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Citigroup Survey: Inflation Overtakes Tariffs as Family Offices' Top Concern, Wealthy Flock to Gold and US Equities
Inflation has supplanted trade wars and tariffs as the top risk concern for ultra-high-net-worth individuals this year, with interest rate changes and global financial system stability closely followi
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Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that inflationary pressures will take time to subside, and there is a risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.
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Fed’s Collins Says Last Week’s Rate Hike Will Help Return Inflation to Goal
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she supported last week’s decision to raise interest rates, which she said would help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Demand Surges at South African Bond Auction Ahead of Rate Call
Demand surged at an auction of South African government bonds as investors sought relatively high yields ahead of inflation data and a central bank policy meeting scheduled for later this week.
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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood dismisses Fed rate-hike fears, expects tech innovation to drive stronger growth and lower inflation
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood states that higher interest rates will not derail the technology boom, arguing that rapid innovation will drive stronger economic growth. Wood anticipates the current tech r
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Previous, Forecast, Actual: These three numbers in the economic calendar are the market's script.
The economic calendar doesn't predict market trends; it merely answers "when, which country, and what numbers will be released." What truly drives prices is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. This article uses two sets of real data to illustrate how to read previous values, forecasts, and actuals, clarifies three common pitfalls—importance ratings, time zones, and revised figures—and provides a replicable weekly scheduling method.
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