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QCP Capital: Divergence Between Surface-Level Narratives and Underlying Data in the Oil, Interest Rate, and Crypto Markets
Svmuu News: QCP Capital released a macroeconomic report stating that the most notable feature of this week’s market was growing divergence, with situations arising in the oil, interest rate, and crypt
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Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026
Svmuu News: Christopher Hodge, former chief economist at the New York Fed and chief U.S. economist at Natixis, said that Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish start could create a “credibility trap.” Christopher
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There is an 88.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July.
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basi
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eToro: Rising Oil Prices and Inflation Risks Remain the Focus of Market Trading
Svmuu News: In a report, eToro analyst Lale Akoner stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict is driving up oil prices, exacerbating inflation risks, and may keep interest rates high for an extended period. S
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Following the release of the CPI data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July stands at 83.4%.
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 83.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basi
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Before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July stands at 63.1%
Svmuu News: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 63.1%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basi
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Federal Reserve Governor Waller: If core inflation continues to decline—which remains a plausible scenario—he would support keeping interest rates unchanged
Svmuu News: Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if core inflation continues to decline—which remains a reasonable scenario—he will continue to support keeping interest rates unchanged. He expe
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Sources: Bank of Japan (BOJ)s to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in July
Svmuu News: Sources say the Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, pledging to continue raising rates. Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise
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Strategist: Federal Reserve—A rate hike in July is unlikely
Svmuu News: Investors are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision could be a 25-basis-point rate hike, possibly as early as this month, but Phil Orlando, chief market st
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The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds, with the winning yield rising to 5.058%
Svmuu News: The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds, with a winning yield of 5.058%, compared to 5.020% on June 11; the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.44, up from 2.30 in the previ
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Analysis: The continued flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve sends a hawkish signal; Bitcoin’s short-term rebound potential may be limited.
Svmuu News: The bond market is sending signals of tighter monetary policy, which may continue to weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.Currently, the yield spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasu
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Barclays expects Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2027
Svmuu News: Barclays expects Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2027, having previously forecast a 25-basis-point rate cut in March. (Jin Shi)
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Federal Reserve Pie Chart Analysis: Among the Federal Reserve, one person supports three interest rate hikes this year
Svmuu News Federal Reserve The dot plot shows that 1 person believes there should be 3 interest rate hikes in 2026 (compared to 0 in March), 5 people believe there should be 2 interest rate hikes in 2
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Federal Reserve Interest rates were kept unchanged as expected
Svmuu News Federal Reserve For the fourth consecutive meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with market expectations. (Ji
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“Federal Reserve”: Three Key Points to Watch in Warsh’s Debut; Whether the “Dovish Bias” Language Will Be Removed Is Drawing Attention
Svmuu News: Nick Timiraos of “Federal Reserve” notes that there are three key points to watch in the “Federal Reserve” meeting, which Warsh is chairing for the first time: 1. Will the phrase “dovish b
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Market Analysis: Warsh’s First Meeting May Bring “Bad News” for Donald Trump
Svmuu News: As Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump told the new chairman to “remain independent” and “don’t look to me, don’t look to anyone—just do your job and
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Federal Reserve New Governor Warsh is set to make his debut, and the market expects the benchmark interest rate to remain at 3.50%–3.75%
Svmuu News: Global financial markets will be watching Washington closely this week, as the Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, hosts his first press conference following a Federal Open Market
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After the CPI data release, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.3%
Svmuureports that, according to the CME "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in June is 96.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is
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Analysis: US inflation in May returns to "4-handle," war-related inflation peak may have passed (Jin10 Data APP)
Svmuu reported that U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in three years in May, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed up prices for gasoline and other energy products, providing further j
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Before the release of CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June was 98.2%
Svmuu reported that, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point r
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QCP: Cross-asset sell-off continues, crypto market remains fragile in the short term
Svmuu reports that QCP analysis indicates the ongoing cross-asset sell-off continues, with the crypto market's movements highly correlated with global risk sentiment. When geopolitical tensions, inter
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Cathie Wood: Next phase of this cycle may feature accelerating economic growth, declining inflation, lower interest rates, and a stronger US dollar
Svmuu News ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood posted on platform X that the latest jobs report came in stronger than expected, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 172,000 compared to a market expectation of
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Trump: Wants to see interest rates cut, but will leave the decision to Warsh
Svmuu reported that U.S. President Trump stated today during remarks on Air Force One that he hopes to see interest rates lowered, but he will leave the decision on rates to Federal Reserve Chair Wars
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Before the non-farm payroll data release, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June was 96.4%
According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in June is 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. The probability of
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Donald Trump reiterated that U.S. interest rates should be lowered to 1% or less, and stated that ceasing trade with countries running trade deficits could generate at least $1.5 trillion annually.
Donald Trump stated that the U.S. has "the best credit in the world" and its economy is "booming" due to new investments. He believes that if the U.S. stopped trading with most countries with which it
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Trump reiterates his long-held view that sovereign borrowing costs should be more like corporate rates, with better credit receiving lower rates
Trump reiterates his long-held view that sovereign borrowing costs should be more like corporate rates, with better credit receiving lower rates
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Trump demands Fed slash interest rates to 1% or lower after central bank's first hike since 2023
President Donald Trump on Wednesday demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates to 1% "or less," hours after the central bank, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, announced its first rate hike since 20
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DoubleLine CEO Gundlach: Virtually no chance current Fed funds rate is the peak
DoubleLine CEO Gundlach: Virtually no chance current Fed funds rate is the peak
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FOMC members see median federal funds rate at 4.1% by end-2026, longer-run rate revised up to 3.2%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members project the median federal funds rate at 4.1% by end-2026, 4.1% by end-2027, and 3.9% by end-2028. The median longer-run federal funds rate was revised
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U.S. September homebuilder confidence index fell to 32 points, a 12-month low.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 3 points to 32 in September, the lowest level since September 2025. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to drop to 34. Rising mortgage ra
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UK August CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, a new high since March, in line with expectations; the market expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.9% in July and the highest level since March this year, the Office for National Statistics announced on September 16.
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Bitcoin and major crypto stocks fell after the CLARITY Act failed to pass, with analysts downplaying its structural impact.
The crypto market will continue to be influenced by interest rates and the broader monetary environment, analysts told The Block.
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Bitcoin on Tuesday recorded its largest drop since June after the U.S. Senate failed to pass a cryptocurrency regulation bill.
The bill's failure has deprived the crypto industry of a potential catalyst, while market concerns about rising interest rates have intensified.
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MarketWatch analysis: The Fed faces a decision on whether the two-decade era of low interest rates is over
Global bond yields are touching multiyear highs, and as the Federal Reserve meets this week to set interest-rate policy, officials will have to discuss whether this is a repricing back to pre-2007/08
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CNBC Analysis: Soaring US Treasury Yields Unsettle Investors, But Market May Be Nearing "Escape Velocity"
CNBC analysis indicates that market sentiment was rattled as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5% on Tuesday, reaching a new high since 2007. However, the surge from zero rates since the pande
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Billionaire investor David Rubenstein warns US debt is a 'ticking time bomb,' with annual interest now $1.25 trillion (18.5% of federal revenue) and exceeding national defense spending
Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein stated that the ballooning US debt, which stands at $40 trillion, weakens national security as the country now pays more in interest ($1.25 trillion annually)
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Traders Are at Odds With ECB and BOE on How Far Rates Will Rise
Traders Are at Odds With ECB and BOE on How Far Rates Will Rise
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Treasury Secretary Bessent to testify before Congress, touting Iran war success and facing questions on rising energy prices, 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday for his annual testimony. He is expected to highlight the success of the Iran war and r
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WSJ Market Analysis: Bond Yields Could Come Down as Fast as They’ve Climbed, Driven by Expectations for Fed Actions
The Wall Street Journal's market analysis suggests that the main reason for rising bond yields is the likely increase in short-term interest rates, with expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions
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Chase Home Loans launches a 3-week mortgage rate discount promotion, offering up to 0.25% off for new purchase and refinance loans
The promotion runs from Monday, Sept. 14, through Sunday, Oct. 4, and is available to both new and existing customers. This marks the third return of the "rate sale" by the national lender, applicable
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Junk-rated borrowers are refinancing €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) in debt early, willing to accept significantly higher rates on fears that costs will rise even further if they wait.
Junk-rated borrowers are refinancing €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) in debt early, willing to accept significantly higher rates on fears that costs will rise even further if they wait.
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India's August inflation rises to 4.82%, marginally exceeding forecasts and marking tenth straight monthly acceleration
India's consumer price inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July, marginally exceeding economists' expectations for a 4.80% rise. This marks the tenth consecutive month of acceleration, fue
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WSJ analysis: Mortgage bonds face risks whether interest rates rise or fall
According to The Wall Street Journal's analysis, mortgage bonds are at risk in both rising and falling interest rate environments. The report notes that fewer people hold ultracheap mortgages than com
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Chicago Fed Paper: Market-Implied Rates Move Only 5 Bps When Median SEP Projection Exceeds Expectations by 25 Bps, Reflecting Conditional View
Chicago Fed Paper: Market-Implied Rates Move Only 5 Bps When Median SEP Projection Exceeds Expectations by 25 Bps, Reflecting Conditional View
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Nikkei Asia: BOJ Governor Ueda and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will face tough tests this week as markets pressure interest rates.
With renewed inflation concerns and a global bond sell-off, investors are increasing pressure on policymakers to get ahead of inflation and convince markets they can keep pace with evolving expectatio
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Traders hedging stock rally are split on protecting against a fast selloff or a slow grind lower
Investors are looking to hedge as the equity rally stalls in the face of rising interest rates and oil prices, but are divided on whether to protect against a rapid market plunge or a gradual decline.
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Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlik stated that high interest rates may become the new normal, and Kevin Warsh faces a critical test at next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, stated that high interest rates could become the new normal, leading to rising debt costs for governments, businesses, and households that have accum
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Oil, Gas and Diesel Prices Surge, Forcing Central Banks and Governments to Reassess Impact of Iran and Ukraine Wars, Signaling Winter Crisis and Rising Interest Rates
Oil, Gas and Diesel Prices Surge, Forcing Central Banks and Governments to Reassess Impact of Iran and Ukraine Wars, Signaling Winter Crisis and Rising Interest Rates
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