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Polymarket
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Some idiot bet $297,000 that Spain will beat Argentina in the World Cup final.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina,” over $1.386 million in “dumb money” was lost (0x2e25b222e2080c377fc1fb2b9
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Some idiot bet $100,000 on the League of Legends EWC quarterfinals, where T1 defeated HLE.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends EWC Quarterfinals: T1 vs. HLE,” the account “suntori” (0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6
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Probability of the CLARITY Act Being Signed This Year on Polymarket Rises to 35%
Svmuu News: On July 17, Polymarket traders raised the probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year to 35%, rebounding from the low of 24% reached on July 13. The probability for
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predict.fun Launches Maker Rebates for Up/Down Markets: Rebate Rates Are Higher Than Polymarket’s, and Rebates Are Credited in Real Time
Svmuu News: The prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that a Maker order rebate mechanism is now available for all Up/Down markets. Users who execute trades via limit orders will receiv
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. The U.S. Senate unanimously opposed granting a pardon to FTX founder SBF; 2. On Polymarket, the probability that “Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Parden, and Jacob Chimmelman will win the Fields Medal” ha
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Polymarket Launches New Market: “When Will the U.S. and Iran Agree to a Two-Week Ceasefire?”
According to monitoring data from the PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket has launched a market titled “When will the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire?” The current probability for July 18
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A "smart money" investor has bet over $90,000 that Argentina will not win the 2026 World Cup
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “Will Argentina Win the 2026 World Cup?”, smart money with a win probability exceeding 72% (0x701187150980c2421bc3c87a
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Polymarket’s probability estimates for “Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Parden, and Jacob Chimmelman winning the Fields Medal” have all risen to over 98%.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probabilities of the following four events on Polymarket—“Deng Yu will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “Wang Hong will win the 2026 Fields Medal,” “ Jo
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Stanford Study Claims Polymarket’s “Five-Minute” Bitcoin Betting Market Allowed Suspected Manipulators to Profit $8.2 Million
Svmuu News: Researchers at Stanford University have discovered signs of manipulation in Polymarket’s five-minute betting market at Bitcoin. The study analyzed contract data spanning approximately two
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$2.5 Million Profit in One Week; $310,000 Spent on Addresses; Argentina Has Not Won in Regular Season Play
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup England vs. Argentina prediction event, an address that made a profit of $2.5 million over 7 days purchased $310,000 on the
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A "smart money" bettor placed a $150,000 bet on England not winning in regulation time in the World Cup semifinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: England vs. Argentina,” the address 0xe549581668a5751c1972d3ad2d1991d900bd2d54 placed a b
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Some idiot bet $350,000 on Argentina advancing to the World Cup final
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: England vs. Argentina,” the account 123abc (address: 0xc58df0b98437f613e20916c242403e0a6c
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The Czech Republic has classified Polymarket as an unauthorized online game and has ordered ISPs to block access to it within 15 days.
Svmuu News: On July 13, the Czech Ministry of Finance added Polymarket to its list of unauthorized online gaming platforms, designating it as an unlicensed gambling platform. Internet service provider
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A "smart money" investor has placed a $487,000 bet that France will defeat Spain in the World Cup semifinals.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: France vs. Spain,” a “smart money” account (address: 0x85f031d069de300055900c4055c1baeb6b
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Prediction market trading volume exceeded $50 billion during the World Cup, with Kalshi attracting a large number of female users and first-time bettors
Svmuu News: During the 2026 World Cup, prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood’s Rothera collectively set a record for monthly trading volume, exceeding $50 billion. Kalshi has a
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Profits Exceed $1.5 Million; Smart Money Buys In for $190,000; France Advances to the Semifinals
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “World Cup Semifinal: France vs. Spain,” a “smart money” player (Address: 0x83720820a8aa6c3f20ad71850e7a1a17d16c5223
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Gondor will launch Polymarket margin accounts, allowing users to borrow against their entire portfolio of prediction market positions.
Svmuu News: Gondor, a DeFi project built on Polymarket, has announced the launch of Gondor v1, which is scheduled to go live in September of this year. The product will allow users to borrow against t
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Gondor v1 will allow users to borrow and leverage their entire Polymarket portfolio
Svmuu News: Gondor, a Polymarket-based DeFi startup, has announced the launch of Gondor v1, describing it as Polymarket’s first margin account product. This version is expected to go live in September
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Smart Money Bets $390,000 on a French Win in Regular Time
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup semifinal prediction event for France vs. Spain, the address RJW1—which had a total profit of $1.7 million—purchased $390,0
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Some idiot bet $550,000 on France advancing to the World Cup final
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Semifinal: France vs. Spain,” total losses exceeded $7.4 million. The account “mooseborzoi” (address
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Gate Prediction Market Launches Real-Time Price Movement Alerts to Help Users Efficiently Track Capital Flows
Svmuu News: The Gate Prediction Market has officially launched a real-time market anomaly alert feature. By monitoring large-volume buy and sell transactions in real time, this feature helps users qui
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BLG failed to win the League of Legends MSI Mid-Season Invitational championship, and the Polymarket bet on whether “BLG would achieve the ‘Golden Path’ (Grand Slam)” settled as “No.”
According to data from the PPP prediction market tool, the League of Legends MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) World Championship has officially concluded. In the final, BLG suffered a narrow 2–3 loss to
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Polymarket's revenue exceeded $11 million this week, setting a new record high
Svmuu reports that Polymarket's revenue this week has exceeded $11 million, setting a new record, with the protocol's cumulative revenue now surpassing $97 million.
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$1.9 million profit in one week; bet $260,000 on Argentina vs. Switzerland with total goals over 1.5
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup quarterfinal event predicting the total goals in the Argentina vs. Switzerland match, “smart money” that had made a profit
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Polymarket launches 15-minute gold and silver betting in partnership with Chainlink
Polymarket has launched 15-minute gold and silver betting in partnership with Chainlink. These contracts use opening and closing spot prices, with U.S. participants paying approximately $1.74 per 100
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Senators Warren and Curtis Press Kalshi and Polymarket on Election Trading Safeguards
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Katie Britt have pressed prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for information on their election trading safeguards. The senators have set a November 3 deadli
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Bubblemaps tracked a Polymarket exploit that led to $2.7 million in outflows. The platform's trading has resumed, and it has pledged full compensation.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has tracked $2.7 million in outflows from prediction market Polymarket following a previous security vulnerability incident. Polymarket's platform trading has now
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Prediction market Polymarket suffered a large-scale hack, with nearly 1,000 accounts compromised and over $2.6 million stolen.
Prediction market Polymarket has suffered a major security breach, with nearly 1,000 accounts compromised and over $2.6 million lost. Blockchain analyst Conor Grogan disclosed that a total of 995 acco
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Polymarket International Platform Suspends Trading Due to Third-Party Provider Hack
Prediction market platform Polymarket stated that its international platform is currently experiencing an outage due to a hack at an unnamed third-party provider. Traders first reported unauthorized w
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Binance founder CZ comments on Polymarket attack, stating it appears to be a front-end injection attack
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) commented on the Polymarket security incident, stating that it appears to be a front-end injection attack that injects incorrect transactions but shows a valid tran
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Polymarket confirmed that a third-party provider was compromised, has suspended trading, and pledged full refunds. The alleged attacker's wallet holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
Polymarket confirmed that a third-party provider was compromised, has suspended trading, and pledged full refunds. The alleged attacker's wallet holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
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Polymarket has suspended trading and interrupted its relay service after a trader reported an $800,000 account theft.
Polymarket has suspended trading and interrupted its relay service after a trader reported an $800,000 account theft.
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Polymarket confirmed that user funds were stolen due to a compromise of a third-party service provider, and has suspended trading and referred the matter to law enforcement, pledging full compensation.
Wu Blockchain reports that multiple Polymarket users have reported unauthorized fund transfers, with losses totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. Polymarket stated it has identified and fixed the
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Polymarket Launches Ultra-Short-Term Crypto Prediction Markets on US Platform Amid CFTC Compliance Review
Polymarket has launched new Up/Down ultra-short-term crypto contracts on its U.S. platform. This move comes as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reviews Polymarket's compliance with
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Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
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Polymarket generated $14 billion in trading volume from sports betting in the US within 30 days, while facing CFTC scrutiny.
According to DeFi Rate data, prediction market Polymarket's US platform recorded approximately $13.7 billion in notional trading volume in the 30 days ending October 26, with sports betting accounting
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Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
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CFTC Investigates Polymarket for Alleged Violation of Settlement Agreement
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating whether Polymarket violated its 2022 settlement agreement by failing to adequately block U.S. users from accessing its offshore pl
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NEXTPredict conference discusses prediction market expansion and applications
The NEXTPredict conference, held in New York from October 22nd to 23rd, brought together major prediction market exchanges, trading firms, and policymakers. JB Mackenzie, Vice President at Robinhood,
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Polymarket investigated dozens of midterm-election bets for possible insider trading and manipulation
Shana Bautista, Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations at prediction market platform Polymarket, told NPR that the company has investigated dozens of midterm election market bets involving pot
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Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election
Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election. Polymarket predicted Lula's chances of winning were only 20% be
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The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and partnered with leading fi
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The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received the same preferred designation.
The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received
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Bitcoin price bets drive record $2.7 billion weekly trading volume on crypto prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
Weekly notional trading volume for crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion last week, Bloomberg reported, citing Dune Analytics data. This surge was primarily d
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Bloomberg Markets reports that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming traditional polls in election forecasting, but critics warn they pose new risks to democracy.
Bloomberg Markets reports that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming traditional polls in election forecasting, but critics warn they pose new risks to democracy.
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Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has fired its Head of Marketing, Matthew Modabber, according to the New York Post.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has fired its Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, according to the New York Post. Modabber is also a close friend of the company's CEO, S
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According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of AI model company Anthropic going bankrupt by the end of 2028 is only 17%, despite its IPO draft showing a net loss of over $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026 and committed spending of up to $750 billion on computing infrastructure.
According to Wall Street Insights citing The Wall Street Journal, approximately $72 billion of Anthropic's $80.7 billion net loss was due to non-cash accounting adjustments, with an actual operating l
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CFTC Accuses Polymarket of Insider Trading: $1.2 Million in Illegal Gains Reveals Regulatory Storm in Prediction Markets
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently taken multiple enforcement actions against the prediction market platform Polymarket and its users. Following a fine imposed on Polymarket in 2022, the CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice filed lawsuits against two individuals in 2026, accusing them of illegally profiting approximately $1.2 million and over $400,000, respectively, by trading event contracts on Polymarket using insider information. These cases, coupled with the CFTC's re-examination of Polymarket's compliance this month, highlight regulators' growing concern over insider trading and platform compliance in prediction markets, signaling stricter legal scrutiny for the sector.
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2026 World Cup Review: How Polymarket Prediction Data Reflected Market Expectations and Outcomes
The 2026 FIFA World Cup concluded on July 19, with Spain ultimately claiming the championship. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, the "World Cup Winner" event saw trading volume exceed $4.3 billion, making it the largest single sports event. Before the tournament, France and Spain were favorites, but on the eve of the final, Polymarket data showed Spain's probability of winning surged to 58%, which ultimately aligned with the outcome. This article will review how Polymarket data revealed the market's collective expectations for the event.
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Prediction Market Trading Platforms: An Overview of Four Core Platforms
Prediction market platforms allow users to bet on or trade the outcomes of future events, aggregating collective intelligence to forecast trends. This article will delve into four core platforms: Kalshi, regulated by the U.S. CFTC; Polymarket, a crypto-native platform based on Polygon; Augur, a decentralized pioneer on Ethereum; and Zeitgeist, which employs a Futarchy governance model within the Kusama ecosystem. We will analyze their operational models, regulatory compliance, technical characteristics, and current development status to help readers understand the diverse landscape of this emerging field.
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Polymarket Prediction Market Plagued by Insider Trading: Regulatory Challenges Highlighted by Maduro Ousting Bets
Crypto prediction market Polymarket has recently drawn significant attention due to multiple insider trading allegations. In one instance, a U.S. Army sergeant allegedly used classified military operation information to accurately bet on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, profiting over $400,000. This has led to criminal and civil lawsuits from the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC. Additionally, the platform has been involved in several other cases of trading based on internal information, highlighting the regulatory gaps and integrity challenges faced by prediction markets in their rapid development.
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Polymarket vs. Kalshi Valuation Showdown: An In-depth Analysis of Prediction Market Platform Investment Value
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi are competing in the rapidly evolving event contracts sector. Polymarket is seeking a $21 billion valuation, while Kalshi is targeting $40 billion. This article will provide a comprehensive comparison of their valuations, regulatory compliance, market share, trading volume, revenue models, and potential risks, offering readers a complete perspective to explore which holds greater investment potential in the current market environment.
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Polymarket
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