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Polymarket
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Svmuu Noon News
1. Margin balances on the South Korean stock market have fallen to their lowest level since April; 2. Base Co-founder: Will continue to expand developer support, focusing on products that naturally ga
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A "smart money" bettor has placed a bet of over $110,000 on M80 to defeat NIP in the CS2 BLAST Summer Qualifiers.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “CS2 BLAST Summer Qualifier: M80 vs. NIP,” “smart money” with profits exceeding $250,000 (0xdb859a551fcf56e494161609
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Polymarket has registered an official, independent X account for Polymarket Perps and may be set to heavily promote futures trading
Svmuu News: On July 21, Polymarket registered a new official, standalone X account for Polymarket Perps; the account has currently posted only three updates. Perpetual contract trading on the Polymark
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Polymarket Reportedly Placed Approximately $200 Million in Bets Over a Six-Month Period That Showed Signs of Insider Trading
Svmuu News: From January to June 2026, approximately $200 million in bets on the Polymarket platform were flagged as exhibiting characteristics of suspected insider trading; the related trades were pr
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The total amount is approximately $200 million; in the first half of this year, an estimated 34,000 suspicious transactions were flagged.
Svmuu News: As prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket become increasingly popular and expand in scale, the phenomenon of trading based on insider information is on the rise. An analysis of a
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Open Interest Falls 20% as Kalshi and Polymarket See World Cup Frenzy Fade
Svmuu News: On the eve of the World Cup final, the combined open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket fell by 20% from its peak of approximately $2 billion in early July, dropping from nearly $1.8 billio
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On Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing by the end of August has risen to 21%
Svmuu News: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from Monday morning’s low of 11%; the probability of it
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Is Miami a Potential Destination? The probability of “LeBron James joining the Heat” on Polymarket has risen to 47%, up 28% in a single week.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the multiple-choice prediction event on Polymarket titled “Which team will LeBron James play for next season?”, the probability of him joining the M
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U.Today: Gate Polymarket Drives the Popularization of Prediction Markets, with Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeding $622 Million
Svmuu News: According to the latest in-depth report by U.Today, as prediction markets continue to gain momentum, sports events are becoming a key driver of industry growth. As the world’s first centra
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Over 66% of addresses are in the red; large profits in Polymarket’s World Cup winner market are concentrated among a small number of traders
Svmuu News: Among the more than 194,000 unique trading addresses on Polymarket’s World Cup winner prediction market, nearly 130,000 addresses made incorrect predictions and incurred losses, accounting
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Some idiot spent $70,000 on League of Legends KeSPA Cup: DRX vs. FOX1
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends KeSPA Cup: DRX vs. FOX1,” the account with total losses exceeding $2 million was 111111111115 (0xcd
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Gate Launches the Esports Peak Trading Season—Predict Esports Match Outcomes and Share in 200,000 USDT
Svmuu News: According to official announcements, Gate is launching the “Esports Trading Season” from 4:00 PM on July 20 to 4:00 PM on August 10 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During
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With a single profit of $1.135 million, the Polymarket account "yamal19" bet on Spain to win the World Cup final
Svmuu News: The Polymarket account "yamal19" made a single profit of $1.135 million by betting on Spain to win the World Cup final against Argentina.
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A new Polymarket account, "yamal19," purchased $1.16 million worth of "YES" shares on Spain winning the championship.
Svmuu News: According to monitoring by on-chain investigator Specter, an unknown entity withdrew 31 BTC—worth $1.98 million—from the Wasabi Mixer a few minutes ago, transferred the funds cross-chain t
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A "smart money" investor has placed a bet of $1.054 million on Spain to defeat Argentina in the World Cup final.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “2026 World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina,” smart money accounts (address: 0x5b4ec9c06b284ee52c41a761974d836
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England Takes Third Place at the World Cup; Gate Prediction Market Focuses on the Spain vs. Argentina Championship Match
Svmuu News: On July 19, England secured third place in the tournament with a 6-4 victory over France; meanwhile, Spain and Argentina will face off in the final on July 20 at 03:00 (UTC+8) in a showdow
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$1.9 million profit in one week; purchased a bet for $260,000 on a French regular-season match and won
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup France vs. England prediction event, the address “Allezpapa”—which made a profit of $1.9 million over the past week—holds $
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France to Block Polymarket Website; 578,800 Visits Recorded Within the Country in June
Svmuu News: On July 17, the French regulatory authority ANJ announced that the Polymarket website would be blocked within France, following the agency’s November 2024 ban on financial transactions on
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France Blocks Access to the Polymarket Website
Svmuu News: The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) announced on July 17 that it will block users in France from accessing the prediction market platform Polymarket, following a previous ban on t
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Some idiot bet $297,000 that Spain will beat Argentina in the World Cup final.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “2026 World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina,” over $1.386 million in “dumb money” was lost (0x2e25b222e2080c377fc1fb2b9
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Some idiot bet $100,000 on the League of Legends EWC quarterfinals, where T1 defeated HLE.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends EWC Quarterfinals: T1 vs. HLE,” the account “suntori” (0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6
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Probability of the CLARITY Act Being Signed This Year on Polymarket Rises to 35%
Svmuu News: On July 17, Polymarket traders raised the probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year to 35%, rebounding from the low of 24% reached on July 13. The probability for
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predict.fun Launches Maker Rebates for Up/Down Markets: Rebate Rates Are Higher Than Polymarket’s, and Rebates Are Credited in Real Time
Svmuu News: The prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that a Maker order rebate mechanism is now available for all Up/Down markets. Users who execute trades via limit orders will receiv
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Svmuu Evening Brief
1. The U.S. Senate unanimously opposed granting a pardon to FTX founder SBF; 2. On Polymarket, the probability that “Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Parden, and Jacob Chimmelman will win the Fields Medal” ha
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Federal Judge Blocks Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban, a Win for Kalshi and Polymarket
A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on Monday, blocking the U.S. state of Minnesota from enforcing its new law banning prediction markets. This decision marks a win for prediction market p
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Federal Judge Pauses Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban, Citing Likely Conflict with Commodity Exchange Act
A federal judge has paused Minnesota's law criminalizing prediction markets, ruling that it would likely violate the federal Commodity Exchange Act. This decision comes after prediction market platfor
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On Polymarket, the probability of the "76ers winning the 2027 NBA Championship" has risen to 14%, up 7% from the previous week.
According to PPP’s prediction market tracking, the probability of the 76ers winning the 2027 NBA Championship on Polymarket has risen to 14%, up 7% from the previous week; the Thunder’s probability of
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Polymarket data showing nearly $9 million in open interest indicates that traders assign a 17% probability to Ethereum reaching $3,000 by 2026.
Svmuu News: On Polymarket, the trading volume for the “Will Ethereum Reach $1,000 or $3,000 First?” contract was $95,300,with traders pricing the $1,000 outcome at 54 cents and the $3,000 outcome at 5
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On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $95 per barrel in July has dropped to 53%, down 16% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $95 per barrel has dropped t
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On Polymarket, the probability that “SpaceX’s Starship will conduct its 13th test flight on July 24” has risen to 77%, up 16% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP prediction market tools, the probability on Polymarket that “SpaceX’s Starship will conduct its 13th test flight on July 24” has risen to 77%, up 16% over the past 24 hours; The proba
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Wisconsin Warns That Those Who Trade Election Contracts May Lose Their Right to Vote in the Same Election; Kalshi Calls It Voter Suppression
Svmuu News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same el
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On Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a "two-week ceasefire" by August 31 is currently reported at 51%, down 3% from the previous week.
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the prediction event on Polymarket titled “When will the U.S. and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire?”, the probability for August 14 is currently report
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DraftKings Co-Founder Questions Kalshi's $22 Billion Valuation and Financial Credibility
Svmuu News: Matt Kalish, CEO of HARDSCOPE and co-founder of DraftKings, posted on X, using the sudden departure of Kalshi’s CFO as an opportunity to satirize and question the company’s $22 billion val
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Approximately $9 million in funds of unknown origin were deposited into George Cottrell’s Polymarket account
Svmuu News: George Cottrell’s account on Polymarket received two deposits of unknown origin in October 2024, totaling approximately $9 million.of which $7 million came from an OKX exchange wallet and
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Polymarket Will Challenge the Nationwide Website Blockade in France
Svmuu News: Polymarket has announced it will challenge France’s site-wide block against it, noting that the platform has disabled trading functions in France since November 2024. French regulators sta
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On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $95 per barrel in July has risen to 48%, with a 20% increase over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $95 per barrel has reached 4
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Polymarket reports a preliminary probability of 61% that “the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026,” up 51% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability that “the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026” is currently reported at 61% on Polymarket, up 51% over the past 24
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Kalshi and Polymarket's combined trading volume exceeded $44 billion in 2025
Svmuu News: Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the two platforms’ combined monthly trading volume had risen to $24 billion, exceed
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A "smart money" investor bought $30,000 worth of LPL Stage 3 after JDG defeated AL
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “LPL Stage 3: JDG vs. AL,” “smart money” with profits exceeding $470,000 (0xe405483ff60ab58ce973479d3317045549fec67e
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On Polymarket, the probability that “the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026” has dropped to 38%, down 9% over the past 24 hours.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability that “the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026” on Polymarket is currently reported at 38%, down 9% over the past 24 hours. Alth
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A "smart money" investor has bet over $190,000 on a South Korean professional soccer match, predicting that Seoul FC will defeat Pohang Steelers.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event for the “South Korean professional soccer match between Seoul FC and Pohang Steelers,” smart money accounts (address
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Polymarket Expresses Disappointment Over France's Decision to Block the Website
Svmuu News: Polymarket posted on X, expressing disappointment with the French gambling regulator’s decision to unilaterally block its website and stating its intention to challenge the ruling through
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Prediction Market Reports $113.8 Billion in Nominal Trading Volume for the Second Quarter; Talos Integrates Kalshi Trading
Svmuu News: Talos, an institutional crypto trading platform, has integrated with prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing select clients to trade Kalshi’s event contracts and crypto perpetual contr
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On Polymarket, the probability that the price of Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July is currently reported at 75%.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in Polymarket’s “Bitcoin’s July Price” prediction market, the probability of BTC reaching $67,500 is currently reported at 75%,the probability of reach
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Polymarket puts the probability that the “CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026” at 42%, up 10% from the previous week.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability that “the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026” on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% over the past 24 hours and 10%
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On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $85 per barrel in July has risen to 75%
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the market estimates a 75% probability that WTI crude oil will break through $
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During the World Cup, Kalshi's trading volume reached $54.338 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket together accounting for over 95% of the market share.
Svmuu News: According to statistics, Kalshi’s total trading volume across all platforms during the World Cup reached $54.338 billion, approximately 2.6 times Polymarket’s trading volume of $20.988 bil
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Bitcoin Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $67,500 in July Rises to 70%; Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 5 Consecutive Days
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders have raised the probability that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July to 70%, up from approximately 56% earlier this week.The current market probability of Bitcoin reachin
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Polymarket
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