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Polymarket
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On Polymarket, the probability that the price of Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July is currently reported at 75%.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in Polymarket’s “Bitcoin’s July Price” prediction market, the probability of BTC reaching $67,500 is currently reported at 75%,the probability of reach
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Polymarket puts the probability that the “CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026” at 42%, up 10% from the previous week.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, the probability that “the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026” on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% over the past 24 hours and 10%
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On Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will break through $85 per barrel in July has risen to 75%
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the market estimates a 75% probability that WTI crude oil will break through $
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During the World Cup, Kalshi's trading volume reached $54.338 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket together accounting for over 95% of the market share.
Svmuu News: According to statistics, Kalshi’s total trading volume across all platforms during the World Cup reached $54.338 billion, approximately 2.6 times Polymarket’s trading volume of $20.988 bil
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Bitcoin Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $67,500 in July Rises to 70%; Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 5 Consecutive Days
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders have raised the probability that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July to 70%, up from approximately 56% earlier this week.The current market probability of Bitcoin reachin
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Svmuu Noon News
1. Margin balances on the South Korean stock market have fallen to their lowest level since April; 2. Base Co-founder: Will continue to expand developer support, focusing on products that naturally ga
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A "smart money" bettor has placed a bet of over $110,000 on M80 to defeat NIP in the CS2 BLAST Summer Qualifiers.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “CS2 BLAST Summer Qualifier: M80 vs. NIP,” “smart money” with profits exceeding $250,000 (0xdb859a551fcf56e494161609
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Polymarket has registered an official, independent X account for Polymarket Perps and may be set to heavily promote futures trading
Svmuu News: On July 21, Polymarket registered a new official, standalone X account for Polymarket Perps; the account has currently posted only three updates. Perpetual contract trading on the Polymark
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Polymarket Reportedly Placed Approximately $200 Million in Bets Over a Six-Month Period That Showed Signs of Insider Trading
Svmuu News: From January to June 2026, approximately $200 million in bets on the Polymarket platform were flagged as exhibiting characteristics of suspected insider trading; the related trades were pr
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The total amount is approximately $200 million; in the first half of this year, an estimated 34,000 suspicious transactions were flagged.
Svmuu News: As prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket become increasingly popular and expand in scale, the phenomenon of trading based on insider information is on the rise. An analysis of a
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Open Interest Falls 20% as Kalshi and Polymarket See World Cup Frenzy Fade
Svmuu News: On the eve of the World Cup final, the combined open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket fell by 20% from its peak of approximately $2 billion in early July, dropping from nearly $1.8 billio
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On Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing by the end of August has risen to 21%
Svmuu News: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from Monday morning’s low of 11%; the probability of it
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Is Miami a Potential Destination? The probability of “LeBron James joining the Heat” on Polymarket has risen to 47%, up 28% in a single week.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the multiple-choice prediction event on Polymarket titled “Which team will LeBron James play for next season?”, the probability of him joining the M
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U.Today: Gate Polymarket Drives the Popularization of Prediction Markets, with Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeding $622 Million
Svmuu News: According to the latest in-depth report by U.Today, as prediction markets continue to gain momentum, sports events are becoming a key driver of industry growth. As the world’s first centra
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Over 66% of addresses are in the red; large profits in Polymarket’s World Cup winner market are concentrated among a small number of traders
Svmuu News: Among the more than 194,000 unique trading addresses on Polymarket’s World Cup winner prediction market, nearly 130,000 addresses made incorrect predictions and incurred losses, accounting
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Some idiot spent $70,000 on League of Legends KeSPA Cup: DRX vs. FOX1
According to PPP prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event “League of Legends KeSPA Cup: DRX vs. FOX1,” the account with total losses exceeding $2 million was 111111111115 (0xcd
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Gate Launches the Esports Peak Trading Season—Predict Esports Match Outcomes and Share in 200,000 USDT
Svmuu News: According to official announcements, Gate is launching the “Esports Trading Season” from 4:00 PM on July 20 to 4:00 PM on August 10 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During
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With a single profit of $1.135 million, the Polymarket account "yamal19" bet on Spain to win the World Cup final
Svmuu News: The Polymarket account "yamal19" made a single profit of $1.135 million by betting on Spain to win the World Cup final against Argentina.
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A new Polymarket account, "yamal19," purchased $1.16 million worth of "YES" shares on Spain winning the championship.
Svmuu News: According to monitoring by on-chain investigator Specter, an unknown entity withdrew 31 BTC—worth $1.98 million—from the Wasabi Mixer a few minutes ago, transferred the funds cross-chain t
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A "smart money" investor has placed a bet of $1.054 million on Spain to defeat Argentina in the World Cup final.
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event titled “2026 World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina,” smart money accounts (address: 0x5b4ec9c06b284ee52c41a761974d836
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England Takes Third Place at the World Cup; Gate Prediction Market Focuses on the Spain vs. Argentina Championship Match
Svmuu News: On July 19, England secured third place in the tournament with a 6-4 victory over France; meanwhile, Spain and Argentina will face off in the final on July 20 at 03:00 (UTC+8) in a showdow
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$1.9 million profit in one week; purchased a bet for $260,000 on a French regular-season match and won
According to PPP’s prediction market monitoring, in the Polymarket World Cup France vs. England prediction event, the address “Allezpapa”—which made a profit of $1.9 million over the past week—holds $
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France to Block Polymarket Website; 578,800 Visits Recorded Within the Country in June
Svmuu News: On July 17, the French regulatory authority ANJ announced that the Polymarket website would be blocked within France, following the agency’s November 2024 ban on financial transactions on
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France Blocks Access to the Polymarket Website
Svmuu News: The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) announced on July 17 that it will block users in France from accessing the prediction market platform Polymarket, following a previous ban on t
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Polymarket Launches Ultra-Short-Term Crypto Prediction Markets on US Platform Amid CFTC Compliance Review
Polymarket has launched new Up/Down ultra-short-term crypto contracts on its U.S. platform. This move comes as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reviews Polymarket's compliance with
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Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades in the Israeli elections, raising concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets.
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Polymarket generated $14 billion in trading volume from sports betting in the US within 30 days, while facing CFTC scrutiny.
According to DeFi Rate data, prediction market Polymarket's US platform recorded approximately $13.7 billion in notional trading volume in the 30 days ending October 26, with sports betting accounting
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Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
Polymarket has added five-minute crypto contracts to its U.S. application, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These contracts are settled using CF Benchmarks prices and incur separate taker fees.
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CFTC Investigates Polymarket for Alleged Violation of Settlement Agreement
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating whether Polymarket violated its 2022 settlement agreement by failing to adequately block U.S. users from accessing its offshore pl
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NEXTPredict conference discusses prediction market expansion and applications
The NEXTPredict conference, held in New York from October 22nd to 23rd, brought together major prediction market exchanges, trading firms, and policymakers. JB Mackenzie, Vice President at Robinhood,
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Polymarket investigated dozens of midterm-election bets for possible insider trading and manipulation
Shana Bautista, Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations at prediction market platform Polymarket, told NPR that the company has investigated dozens of midterm election market bets involving pot
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Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election
Decrypt reported that experts pointed out that prediction markets severely misjudged the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election. Polymarket predicted Lula's chances of winning were only 20% be
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The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has secured a prediction markets agreement with the U.S. derivatives regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and partnered with leading fi
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The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received the same preferred designation.
The NBA has designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges. This agreement will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA branding, while Polymarket has also received
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Bitcoin price bets drive record $2.7 billion weekly trading volume on crypto prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
Weekly notional trading volume for crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion last week, Bloomberg reported, citing Dune Analytics data. This surge was primarily d
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Bloomberg Markets reports that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming traditional polls in election forecasting, but critics warn they pose new risks to democracy.
Bloomberg Markets reports that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming traditional polls in election forecasting, but critics warn they pose new risks to democracy.
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Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has fired its Head of Marketing, Matthew Modabber, according to the New York Post.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has fired its Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, according to the New York Post. Modabber is also a close friend of the company's CEO, S
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According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of AI model company Anthropic going bankrupt by the end of 2028 is only 17%, despite its IPO draft showing a net loss of over $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026 and committed spending of up to $750 billion on computing infrastructure.
According to Wall Street Insights citing The Wall Street Journal, approximately $72 billion of Anthropic's $80.7 billion net loss was due to non-cash accounting adjustments, with an actual operating l
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Polymarket US and Kalshi Show Similar Taker Profits for 100-Contract Trades
A hypothetical buy at 40 cents and sale at 60 cents on both prediction market platforms produces nearly identical taker profits. However, resting orders and funding methods can alter this comparison,
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Polymarket US Sues Ohio to Block Sports-Contract Crackdown
The exchange seeks preliminary and permanent injunctions after Ohio demanded an immediate halt to sports contracts and written confirmation of compliance by Oct. 16.
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StarkWare Launches OffMarket Service, Enabling Private Transactions for Polymarket Users
StarkWare has opened OffMarket to the public, allowing Polymarket users to trade without publicly linking their positions to their accounts. The service leverages zero-knowledge technology on Starknet
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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan again hinted at a potential token launch, fueling airdrop expectations.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has once again hinted at a potential token launch, fueling market speculation about a possible airdrop, especially as more crypto startups opt for equity financing. Speaki
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Polymarket Token Tease Stands Out After Crypto’s Equity Pivot
Polymarket Token Tease Stands Out After Crypto’s Equity Pivot
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Blockchain data provider Bitquery's audit found that even with an 87% win rate for favored candidates on Polymarket in the 2026 US primaries, equal bets would still result in a 4% loss.
Blockchain data provider Bitquery's audit found that even with an 87% win rate for favored candidates on Polymarket in the 2026 US primaries, equal bets would still result in a 4% loss.
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Polymarket CEO Coplan stops short of mentioning a token at TOKEN2049
Traders had interpreted a Sunday post by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan as a tease for a Polymarket token (POLY). However, at the TOKEN2049 conference, Coplan only described an on-chain asset tied to th
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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Chasing 100x tokens is a game of "irrational exuberance"; traders are seeking more predictable prediction market opportunities.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Chasing 100x tokens is a game of "irrational exuberance"; traders are seeking more predictable prediction market opportunities.
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Polymarket Unveils Protocol V2, Targeting Full Mainnet Switchover on Nov 2
Polymarket Head of Protocol Rajath Alex announced Protocol V2, which replaces its legacy 2019 Gnosis CTF foundation. V2 unifies the system around a single ERC-1155 position contract, pUSD collateral,
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CFTC Accuses Polymarket of Insider Trading: $1.2 Million in Illegal Gains Reveals Regulatory Storm in Prediction Markets
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently taken multiple enforcement actions against the prediction market platform Polymarket and its users. Following a fine imposed on Polymarket in 2022, the CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice filed lawsuits against two individuals in 2026, accusing them of illegally profiting approximately $1.2 million and over $400,000, respectively, by trading event contracts on Polymarket using insider information. These cases, coupled with the CFTC's re-examination of Polymarket's compliance this month, highlight regulators' growing concern over insider trading and platform compliance in prediction markets, signaling stricter legal scrutiny for the sector.
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2026 World Cup Review: How Polymarket Prediction Data Reflected Market Expectations and Outcomes
The 2026 FIFA World Cup concluded on July 19, with Spain ultimately claiming the championship. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, the "World Cup Winner" event saw trading volume exceed $4.3 billion, making it the largest single sports event. Before the tournament, France and Spain were favorites, but on the eve of the final, Polymarket data showed Spain's probability of winning surged to 58%, which ultimately aligned with the outcome. This article will review how Polymarket data revealed the market's collective expectations for the event.
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Prediction Market Trading Platforms: An Overview of Four Core Platforms
Prediction market platforms allow users to bet on or trade the outcomes of future events, aggregating collective intelligence to forecast trends. This article will delve into four core platforms: Kalshi, regulated by the U.S. CFTC; Polymarket, a crypto-native platform based on Polygon; Augur, a decentralized pioneer on Ethereum; and Zeitgeist, which employs a Futarchy governance model within the Kusama ecosystem. We will analyze their operational models, regulatory compliance, technical characteristics, and current development status to help readers understand the diverse landscape of this emerging field.
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Polymarket Prediction Market Plagued by Insider Trading: Regulatory Challenges Highlighted by Maduro Ousting Bets
Crypto prediction market Polymarket has recently drawn significant attention due to multiple insider trading allegations. In one instance, a U.S. Army sergeant allegedly used classified military operation information to accurately bet on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, profiting over $400,000. This has led to criminal and civil lawsuits from the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC. Additionally, the platform has been involved in several other cases of trading based on internal information, highlighting the regulatory gaps and integrity challenges faced by prediction markets in their rapid development.
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Polymarket vs. Kalshi Valuation Showdown: An In-depth Analysis of Prediction Market Platform Investment Value
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi are competing in the rapidly evolving event contracts sector. Polymarket is seeking a $21 billion valuation, while Kalshi is targeting $40 billion. This article will provide a comprehensive comparison of their valuations, regulatory compliance, market share, trading volume, revenue models, and potential risks, offering readers a complete perspective to explore which holds greater investment potential in the current market environment.
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Polymarket Once Reached a Weekly Trading Volume Milestone of $2.1 Billion: Exploring Its Rise as the World's Largest Blockchain Prediction Market
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket set a new record in March 2026 with over $2.1 billion in weekly trading volume, solidifying its position as the world's largest blockchain prediction market. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform operates on the Polygon network and uses USDC for transactions. Polymarket successfully operates compliantly in the United States by acquiring a CFTC-licensed entity and obtaining a "no-action" letter. Despite facing regulatory scrutiny and insider trading concerns, Polymarket has attracted prominent investors such as Intercontinental Exchange and established partnerships with X (Twitter) and Blockchain.com, continuously expanding its market influence.
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Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi: A Competitive Analysis of Prediction Markets and Perpetual Contracts
Decentralized perpetual contract giant Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market space with its HIP-4 proposal, directly challenging industry leaders Polymarket and regulated platform Kalshi. Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have also announced their expansion into perpetual contracts, intensifying the competition among the three. This article will delve into the unique advantages, technical architecture, regulatory status, and market data of each platform to explore the future direction of this multi-dimensional competition.
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Polymarket: How the Prediction Market Giant Is Unlocking a Hundred-Billion-Level Fund Pool and Reaping the Benefits of Globalization
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, is rapidly emerging as a major force in the Web3 space. The platform allows users to predict and trade on the outcomes of global events; its trading volume has surged to the tens of billions of dollars, attracting a large number of users worldwide. This article will delve into Polymarket’s operational mechanisms, its staggering capital scale, and how it is achieving growth through a global strategy, while also addressing the regulatory challenges the platform faces.
Polymarket
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